Core view:
Event: the industry released the production and sales data of household air conditioners online. In February 2022, 9.621 million household air conditioners were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 10.39%, and 9.6864 million units were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 10.59%. Among them, 3.8397 million units were shipped domestically, with a year-on-year increase of 4.06%, and 5.8467 million units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 15.34%.
Both domestic and foreign sales increased year-on-year in February. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the production and sales rhythm of air conditioners changes relatively greatly in January and February every year, and there are short-term fluctuations in the data of a single month. Looking at the data in February alone, due to the low base of last year, domestic and foreign sales increased year-on-year. Overall, the sales of air conditioners increased by 0.79% from January to February, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. Among them, the domestic sales performance was relatively stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.36%, and the growth rate was close to that of December last year. The performance of air-conditioning retail end is also relatively stable. From January to February, the online and offline sales of air-conditioning on ovicloud network changed by 14.94% and - 13.63% year-on-year, of which the online sales of air-conditioning in February increased by 96.46% year-on-year. Export sales performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 4.71% from January to February against the background of last year's high base (a year-on-year increase of 44.81%). According to the air conditioning production scheduling data, the export production scheduling of air conditioners in March increased by 13.7% over the same period last year, and the good trend of export is expected to continue.
Haier and Gree have good export performance. In terms of brands, Haier and Gree have a good export performance. From January to February, the total sales volume of Midea was 8.3 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, of which 3.6 million units were sold domestically, the same as the same period last year, and 4.7 million units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. The year-on-year decrease in export sales was mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. From January to February, Gree's total sales volume was 5.14 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, of which 2.95 million units were sold domestically, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, and 2.19 million units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. We believe that the decline in Gree's domestic sales is obviously due to the continuous channel reform and the reduction of pressure in the off-season. Haier's total sales volume was 2.16 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, including 1.06 million units for domestic sales, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and 1.1 million units for export, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%. In addition to the three major white power companies, other brands have been significantly differentiated, and the domestic and foreign sales of Hisense and Changhong have increased.
Industry concentration decreased slightly. In February, the market share of total shipments of Midea, Gree and Haier was 35.10%, 21.58% and 9.08%, with year-on-year changes of -1.4, -0.69 and 0.52pct, of which the domestic market share was 36.46%, 28.65% and 11.20%, with year-on-year changes of -0.12, -3.87 and 0.9pct, and the export market share was 34.21%, 16.93% and 7.70%, with year-on-year changes of -2.29, 2.14 and 0.4pct. From the perspective of concentration, the domestic sales CR3 of air conditioners from January to February was 80.74%, a slight decrease of 0.54 PCT year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: from January to February, the domestic sales of air conditioners decreased slightly year-on-year, and the export sales performed well. Due to the impact of the epidemic in March, it is difficult to recover the retail sales of air conditioners. However, March is the peak season for shipments through traditional channels, and manufacturers began to prepare goods for the peak season. Superimposed on the good export situation of air conditioners, the output of internal and external sales of air conditioners has increased. Recently, the price of raw materials has increased month on month, but the increase is less than that of last year, and the improvement of industry profits is expected to continue. Due to many recent adjustments, the valuation of white electric faucet is at a relatively low position in history and the safety margin is high. Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ( Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ( Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ) and Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ( Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ) are recommended.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of export order transfer; The risk that the recovery of industry prosperity is less than expected.
