Core view
[market performance] from March 14 to March 18, the CSI 300 index closed at 426590, up 2.18% in one week and down 13.65% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 325107, up 0.85% in one week and down 10.68% year to date. Among shenwanyi industries, social services, real estate, non bank finance and other sectors performed well, among which the transportation industry increased by 1.32% in the week, ranking 12th; Since the beginning of the year, the transportation industry has decreased by 5.60%, ranking No. 6; In terms of molecular industries, the top three performing industries in the transportation industry are Airport (+ 1.02%), public transportation (- 2.31%) and railway transportation (- 2.43%).
[key information] from January to February, the total investment in fixed assets of highway and waterway transportation in China was 273142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; Among them, the total investment in highway construction was 255123 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%; The total investment in water transportation construction was 18.019 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. (Ministry of transport)
[Key announcement] 1) Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : in February, the number of aircraft taking off and landing sorties of the company was 29000, with a year-on-year increase of 45.88%; The passenger throughput was 2.5573 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of 89.42%; The cargo and mail throughput was 265400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.10%. 2) Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : the controlling shareholder Junyao group holds 51.92% of the shares of the company and has pledged 387 million shares (including this time), accounting for 37.87% of the shares of the company and 19.66% of the total shares of the company.
[views of this week]
From January to February, the passenger volume continued to be disturbed by covid-19 epidemic. At present, the main virus strain Omicron has strong infectivity, and the cases in some foreign regions and countries have increased rapidly. China is facing great pressure of “external defense input”. During the Spring Festival transportation, the passenger volume increased significantly compared with 2021, but it has not yet returned to the pre epidemic level; The passenger flow is mainly migrant workers and family visits. The passenger capacity of major airlines performed well in February. In February, the average occupancy rate of major airlines ( Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) ) was 67.14%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.93pct and a month on month increase of + 6.13pct, the highest level in the same period since 2020.
In February, China’s passenger transport of major airlines was the highest level since the epidemic, while international and regional passenger transport continued to be depressed. In February, the year-on-year growth rates of available seat kilometers and revenue seat kilometers of major airlines were + 36.31% and + 42.54% respectively, recovering to 61.18% and 48.27% of the level in the same period in 2019, both of which were the highest level in the same period since 2020; The cumulative year-on-year from January to February was + 21.75% and + 23.26% respectively, and the cumulative recovery degree was 59.97% and 46.33% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. From the perspective of subdividing Chinese routes, international and regional routes, the passenger transport recovery of major airlines is high, mainly due to the rapid repair of passenger transport volume of Chinese routes. 1) China’s airline passenger transport. The year-on-year growth rates of available seat kilometers and revenue seat kilometers of major airlines’ Chinese routes in February were + 37.95% and + 43.32% respectively. Compared with the same period in 2019, the recovery degree was 91.23% and 71.77% respectively, which was much higher than that in the same period since 2020; The cumulative year-on-year from January to February was + 23.42% and + 23.99% respectively, and the cumulative recovery degree was 89.76% and 69.73% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. 2) International and regional airline passenger transport. The year-on-year growth rates of available seat kilometers and revenue seat kilometers of major airlines’ international and regional routes in February were – 2.33% and + 13.78% respectively, with recovery levels of 5.10% and 2.87% respectively compared with the same period in 2019, continuing the downturn since 2020; The cumulative year-on-year rates from January to February were – 14.99% and – 0.77% respectively, and the cumulative recovery degree was 5.17% and 3.02% respectively compared with the same period in 2019.
Under the background of “steady growth”, the recovery of air passenger transport can be expected. Since 2020, under the impact of the epidemic on normal global economic activities, China and the international economy have entered a “double cycle” state. In 2022, the economy is dominated by stability, superimposed with the epidemic prevention policy of “external defense input and internal defense rebound”, and the realization of air transport in China and international passenger transport may continue to differentiate. Although it cannot be ruled out that the multi-point spread of the epidemic in China and the accompanying travel restrictions have an inhibitory effect on demand, China’s passenger transport is expected to continue to recover with the steady growth of China’s economy. Due to the repeated outbreaks abroad and the increased epidemic prevention pressure caused by the spread of the new virus strain Omicron, it is difficult for the passenger transport demand of international and regional routes to quickly reach the pre epidemic level in the short term. However, due to the continuous improvement of vaccination rate and the orderly relaxation of epidemic prevention policies, international and regional routes are expected to be gradually restored. The 14th five year plan of civil aviation defines the period from 2021 to 2022 as the recovery period and savings period, while the period from 2023 to 2025 is the growth period and release period. It will focus on expanding the Chinese market and restoring the international market. 2022 may become the turning point for civil aviation to accelerate its upward movement. At the same time, compared with developed countries, China’s civil aviation passenger transport penetration still has great room for improvement. The demand for civil aviation passenger transport is good in the medium and long term, but due to the disturbance of the epidemic, the short-term fluctuation range may be large.
Investment advice
Under the background of continuous improvement of the epidemic situation and steady economic growth, the demand for civil aviation passenger transport is expected to recover, and the performance of airlines is expected to improve. The relevant targets include Air China Limited(601111) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , etc.
Risk tips
Fluctuation of crude oil price and exchange rate; Deterioration of industry competition pattern; Aggravation of epidemic disturbance; Safety accidents.
