Report view: the marginal improvement of demand expectation continues to be optimistic about sector opportunities.
Core logic: driven by the production capacity cycle, the high outlook of the coal industry continues. The supply side reform launched in 2016 resolved excess capacity, exceeded the target, and the supply capacity decreased more than expected. The national development and Reform Commission calls for accelerating the development and expansion of new driving forces, cultivating and developing high-quality and advanced production capacity, but it is far from being thirsty. Judging from the construction period of 3-5 years, the overall scale of coal production capacity that can be truly released in the future is relatively limited. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, with the growth of the national economy, the energy demand of the whole society is expected to maintain a growth trend, the bottom-up guarantee role of coal in the energy system may be more prominent, the absolute consumption of coal will increase steadily, and the coal industry is still in a high boom development stage.
Points beyond expectations: 1) difficulty in increasing production and ensuring supply exceeds expectations: the space for capacity re combing and re mining in 2022 is limited, and it is difficult to increase another 300 million tons of capacity. On March 18, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on establishing a special class to promote the work related to increasing coal production and ensuring supply, indicating that the urgency and difficulty of increasing production and ensuring supply may be more severe than expected. 2) Demand growth toughness exceeded expectations: the downstream data of coal from January to February 2022 seemed to perform poorly, but considering the high growth in the same period last year, the actual performance this year was acceptable, and the demand growth toughness was still very strong. With the continuous development of the national "steady growth" measures, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased steadily, which is expected to drive the higher than expected growth of downstream coal demand.
3) large factories raise the price of purchased coal, and the price limit space is opened, which is higher than expected: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2022 the price of 5500 kcal coal purchased from January 15 to February 11 is not less than 900 yuan, indicating that "the pit mouth is not more than 700 yuan / ton, and the port is not more than 900 yuan / ton". The influence of the price limit order is weakened, and the upward space of spot price is opened. Under the tight situation of supply and demand, it is expected that the coal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. 4) The Russian Ukrainian crisis catalyzed the global energy crisis, and overseas coal prices soared higher than expected: the spot price index of the three major international power coal rose sharply, superimposed with the uncertain prospect of the liberalization of imported coal from Australia and the export obstruction caused by the need for Indonesian coal mines to fulfill DMO, the supplementary effect of imported coal on the supply of China's market was limited, and the coal import situation was tight. High overseas coal prices and the transfer of imports to domestic trade may exacerbate the tension in coastal coal supply.
Investment suggestion: the marginal demand expectation is improved, and we will continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of the sector. Focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Coal price: in the short term, long and short factors are intertwined, and the port coal price is relatively stable.
Negative factors: first, the policy of increasing supply and stabilizing price has a clear orientation to suppress the rising sentiment of coal prices. With the deepening of the supervision of the performance of medium and long-term coal contracts nationwide, the railway and port give priority to the coal shipping operation of the long-term association, the performance rate of the long-term association of coal power enterprises is further improved, and the long-term association continues to play the role of ballast and stabilizer; 2、 The epidemic broke out in many places, and the outward transportation of goods encountered a bottleneck. With the spread of the epidemic, the outward transportation of coal in the main production areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia was blocked, the number of motor vehicles decreased, it was difficult for the railway to ask for vehicles, the production and marketing situation changed, the supply chain gradually accumulated inventory, and the supporting power of rising coal prices weakened. Positive factors: first, power coal consumption is still optimistic. After the two sessions, the national temperature rose and fell repeatedly, superimposed with the increase of industrial power demand, the consumption of electric coal fluctuated slightly, the daily consumption of downstream power plants remained high, and there was still a strong demand for replenishment of storage in power plants; 2、 The port inventory is low, and the function of reservoir is difficult to be effective. The northern port continues to operate efficiently in and out of the warehouse, and the accumulation speed is slow. The supply of high-quality coal with high calorie, low sulfur and spot saleable goods is still tight. 3、 Domestic and foreign coal prices are seriously upside down, forming a strong support for China's coal prices. In terms of coking coal, the price increase of downstream coking continues to be implemented. With the gradual resumption of production of blast furnaces in downstream steel plants, the just need rises rapidly, and the steel plants are more active in replenishing storage. However, due to the recent repeated epidemic, the wait-and-see mood has increased significantly, which has formed a certain restriction on coke. At present, the profits of steel enterprises are meager, the release of terminal steel demand is delayed, and some regions are seriously affected by the epidemic, the steel demand is weak, and the profits of coke enterprises are further squeezed by the cost of high price coal. Therefore, the rise of coal prices is under pressure in the short term. China's coking coal prices are mainly stable, but some resources are still tight and structural contradictions are prominent.
High frequency data tracking
The coal price index remained stable, the spot price of power coal port fell, the coking coal port was flat, and the pit mouth rose. As of March 16, the comprehensive average price index: Bohai Rim thermal coal (q5500k) closed at 738.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; Comprehensive transaction price: cctd Qinhuangdao thermal coal (q5500) closed at 786.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week on week basis. As of March 18, the closing price of Shanxi production of Qinhuangdao port power end coal (q5500) was 1520.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 144.0 yuan / ton (- 8.65%) on a weekly basis Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Indonesian coal (q5500) warehouse raised the price by 1549.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 61.0 yuan / ton (- 3.8%) on a weekly basis Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Australian coal (q5500) warehouse raised the price by 1554.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 61.0 yuan / ton (- 3.8%) on a weekly basis. In terms of coking coal, as of March 18, the price (including tax) of the main coking coal warehouse produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port increased by 3350.0 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis; The average price of Shanxi main coking coal was 2669.0 yuan / ton, up 88.0 yuan / ton (+ 3.4%) on a weekly basis; The CIF price of hard coking coal from Fengjing coal mine in Australia was US $450.0/t in China, up US $3.0/t (+ 0.7%) on a weekly basis.
Pit mouth, port and terminal inventory rose and fell, the inventory of eight coastal provinces fell, and the inventory of independent coking plants rose. As of March 17, the total storage of power coal in the eight coastal provinces was 26.894 million tons, with a decrease of 1.389 million tons (- 4.9%) on a weekly basis. As of March 18, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.14 million tons, with a weekly increase of 120000 tons (+ 2.4%); Coking coal storage in the six major ports was 2.36 million tons, with a decrease of 240000 tons (- 9.2%) on a weekly basis; The total inventory of coking coal in China's independent coking plants (100) was 11.534 million tons, an increase of 116000 tons (+ 1.0%) on a weekly basis. The coal dispatching index and coal sea freight of Qinhuangdao Port decreased slightly. As of March 18, the arrival volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 6405.0 vehicles, with a decrease of 439.0 vehicles (- 6.4%) compared with the ring road; The port throughput of Qinhuangdao port was 504000 tons, with a decrease of 49000 tons (- 8.9%) on a weekly basis; Coal shipping charges: as of March 18, the ocfi of Qinhuangdao Shanghai (4 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 DWT) shipping coal freight index was 38.6 yuan / ton, down 5.0 yuan / ton (- 11.5%) on a weekly basis; Qinhuangdao Guangzhou (5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 DWT) Maritime coal freight index ocfi was 65.0 yuan / ton, down 6.0 yuan / ton (- 8.5%) on a weekly basis.
Downstream performance: coke prices rise, steel prices fall and cement prices rise. As of March 18, the closing price of Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) quasi primary metallurgical coke (including tax) was 3610.0 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 200.0 yuan / ton (+ 5.9%); The price of deformed steel bar in Shanghai (hrb40020mm) was 4950.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 10.0 yuan / ton (- 0.2%); The national blast furnace operating rate (247) was 78.9%, with a weekly increase of 8.1% (+ 11.4%); The national cement price index was 172.8, up 0.8 points (+ 0.5%) on a weekly basis.
Risk tips
Policy price limit risk; Coal import volume; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
