Core view:
Some economic data warmed up in February. It is expected that affected by the wide credit and infrastructure development, the cumulative added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year from January to February, and the added value of industries above designated size increased by 12.8% year-on-year in February. The monthly growth rate is at a relatively high level since 2019; From January to February, the investment in fixed assets increased by 12.2% year-on-year, realizing a significant recovery, which is expected to be related to the strength of infrastructure investment; In February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.7% year-on-year, which was repaired compared with previous months, but the overall performance was weak; In December, exports increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate has converged; PMI recorded 50.2%, which remained above the boom and bust line, and also increased compared with January.
New social finance fell, and the demand for corporate credit was weak. In February, the scale of new social financing increased by 1.19 trillion yuan in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan. The decline in credit growth and the decrease in off balance sheet financing were the main reasons. Among them, 908.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 432.9 billion yuan; Government bonds increased by 272.2 billion yuan, an increase of 170.5 billion yuan year-on-year; New corporate bond financing was 337.7 billion yuan, an increase of 202.1 billion yuan year-on-year; The domestic stock financing of new non-financial enterprises was 58.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8 billion yuan; Off balance sheet financing decreased by 505.3 billion yuan, an increase of 465.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Structurally, the impulse of short-term loans and bill financing is obvious, and the medium and long-term loans of enterprises are still weak. In February, short-term loans and bill financing increased by 120 billion yuan and 305.2 billion yuan in a single month, an increase of 139.4 billion yuan and 490.7 billion yuan year-on-year; Medium – and long-term loans increased by 459.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1.05 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; Among them, the new medium and long-term loans were 505.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 594.8 billion yuan.
Both the government work report and the meeting of the Finance Committee showed that the policy orientation of steady growth remained unchanged. The 2022 government work report made it clear that the expected target of GDP growth was about 5.5%. At the same time, it put forward work requirements for monetary policy, fiscal policy, real estate, risk prevention and control, taxes and Inclusive Finance, and took multiple measures to help steady growth, including expanding the scale of new loans, expanding fiscal expenditure by more than 2 trillion yuan The special debt of local governments is 3.65 trillion yuan, real estate related policies, the establishment of financial stability guarantee fund, the implementation of new combined tax support policies, inclusive small and micro policies, etc. while the meeting of the finance committee requires to boost the initiative of economic and monetary policies, and further emphasize the moderate growth of new loans and the resolution of risks of real estate enterprises. On the whole, the tone of the steady growth policy remains unchanged, and there is still room for development in the later stage to underpin economic growth and help the continuous improvement of credit.
It is suggested that the policy orientation of steady growth remains unchanged, and there is still room for later policies to help further release the effect of credit easing, which is conducive to the improvement of the banking business environment and the recovery of prosperity. In February, the growth rate of some economic indicators represented by industrial added value above Designated Size and fixed asset investment showed signs of recovery. We continued to pay attention to the policy measures in the fields of currency, finance, credit, real estate, taxes and Inclusive Finance, and further introduced the boosting effect on the economy. The current stage is the window period for the annual report disclosure of listed banks. The early performance express has shown that the performance of many banks exceeded expectations, and the fundamentals are expected to remain stable, supporting the valuation. Current sector pb0 63 times, the valuation is at an all-time low, and the allocation value is prominent. We continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the banking sector and give a “recommended” rating. For individual stocks, it is recommended that China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ), Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ( Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) ( Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) )
