Industry core view:
In February, the online sales data of the three e-commerce platforms (Taoxi, jd.com and pinduoduo) announced that the golden week of the Spring Festival this year was earlier than in previous years, and the consumption demand of some food and beverage was advanced to January. After superposition, covid-19 broke out in many places. Therefore, the online consumption performance of various sub industries was sluggish in February. Liquor Baijiu online sales fell, beer multi platform performance is poor; Among the sub categories of popular goods, the demand for snacks decreased, while dairy products and condiments increased against the trend. From the comparison of online channels, Amoy platform and jd.com still dominate among the three e-commerce platforms. The Baijiu Jingdong has absolute channel advantages, and Tmall Taobao online sales have a larger year-on-year decline. The sales of jd.com platform in the beer industry accounted for more than half, and the sales of tmall Taobao broke the record low in the past year; Relying on the first mover advantage and years of accumulation, Taoxi platform in the leisure and snack industry led jd.com, and jd.com’s sales fell year-on-year; In the dairy industry, jd.com caught up with Taoxi platform, and the sales of the two platforms increased year-on-year; The Amoy platform in the condiment industry is still dominant, and JD condiment sales continue to rise. From the perspective of leading online channels, the proportion of Jingdong online sales of leading brands further expanded in February, of which Maotai sales accounted for more than 95%, the proportion of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) caught up with Taoxi platform, and Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) accounted for half of the country. Overall, the sales figures for food and beverage online in February were not good enough. It is recommended that the high-end and Baijiu high-end liquor makers with long-term demand and growth and strong demand, strong demand and high industry seasoning should be concerned.
Key investment points:
Baijiu online sales decline, Mao five price stability. Baijiu three Baijiu Baijiu online sales total dropped sharply in February, only 2 billion 727 million yuan (YoY-21.41%), Jingdong became the main battlefield of liquor in the three big business platform, and the sales volume of liquor sales in the two months was far more than that of Tmall Taobao and the sales of many Baijiu liquor. The sales volume of Baijiu platform is 644 million yuan (YoY-43.59%). Baijiu Baijiu Jingdong Baijiu sales level slightly ahead of the level, a lot of the same year last year, Jingdong liquor sales volume of 1 billion 894 million yuan (YoY-11.45%), the sales volume of liquor sales was 189 million yuan (YoY-0.15%). Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2 in February, the total sales of the three major e-commerce companies were 412 million yuan (yoy-34.04%), and the online sales of Taoxi platform, jd.com and pinduoduo were 12 / 399 / 01 million yuan respectively, accounting for 2.94% / 96.85% / 0.21% respectively. In February 20, the price of Pfizer single bottle fell in the price range of 3145 yuan to 3230 yuan. The price of Feitian loose bottle fell in the price range of 2810 yuan to 2850 yuan, rising steadily in the month In Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 2 month, the total sales of Taoxi platform and jd.com were 424 million yuan (yoy-20.57%), and the sales of Taoxi platform and jd.com were 64 million yuan and 360 million yuan respectively, accounting for 15.09% and 84.91% respectively. In February, the single bottle price of puwu (eighth generation) fell in the price range of 965 yuan to 970 yuan, and the price of puwu (seventh generation) fell in the price range of 960 yuan to 975 yuan. The price remained stable after a slight rise in the middle of the month.
Beer online sales enthusiasm declined, and multi platform performance was poor. In February, the total sales volume of the three e-commerce beer was 230 million yuan (yoy-28.38%). Among them, the online sales of Taoxi beer was 93 million yuan (yoy-30.67%), the sales of JD beer was 125 million yuan (yoy-24.53%), and the sales of pinduoduo beer was 11 million yuan (yoy-44.92%) The total sales of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Taoxi platform and jd.com were 24 million yuan (yoy-45.98%), and the sales of Taoxi platform and jd.com were 10 / 13 million yuan respectively, accounting for 44.01% / 55.99% respectively. The total online sales of Budweiser Beer’s three major e-commerce companies were 41 million yuan (yoy-24.53%), and the online sales of Taoxi platform, jd.com and pinduoduo were 19366021423939100 yuan respectively, accounting for 47.43% / 52.47% / 0.10% respectively.
The year-on-year decline in online sales of leisure snacks expanded, and the consumer demand of Amoy decreased. The total sales volume of the three major e-commerce leisure and snack industries this month was 7.528 billion yuan (yoy-18.54%). In February, the online sales of snacks Amoy department was 4.757 billion yuan (yoy-19.53%), the sales of JD leisure snacks was 1.556 billion yuan (yoy-31.10%), and the sales of pinduoduo leisure snacks was 1.215 billion yuan (YoY + 13.45%) Three Squirrels Inc(300783) online sales hit a record low of 470 million yuan (yoy-32.23%), and online sales of Taoxi platform, jd.com and pinduoduo were 233 / 225 / 09 million yuan respectively, accounting for 50.33% / 47.78% / 1.88% respectively Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) three major e-commerce online sales totaled 320 million yuan (yoy-2.76%), and the online sales of Taoxi platform, jd.com and pinduoduo were 130 / 178 / 12 million yuan respectively, accounting for 40.50% / 55.64% / 3.85% respectively.
The online sales of dairy products performed well, and the double leading continued to rise. The total sales volume of the three e-commerce dairy products industry this month was 2.138 billion yuan (YoY + 28.88%). In February, the sales volume of dairy products on Taoxi platform was 887 million yuan (YoY + 13.34%), that of Jingdong dairy products was 1.109 billion yuan (YoY + 72.09%), and that of pinduoduo dairy products was 142 million yuan (yoy-38.68%). In February, the online sales of Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) three major e-commerce companies totaled 554 million yuan (YoY + 44.17%), and the online sales of Taoxi platform, jd.com and pinduoduo were 324219/0.12 million yuan, accounting for 58.44% / 39.48% / 2.08% respectively. The total online sales of Mengniu’s three major e-commerce companies were 429 million yuan (YoY + 15.59%), and the online sales of Taoxi platform, jd.com and pinduoduo were 265 / 142 / 21 million yuan respectively, accounting for 61.84% / 33.15% / 5.01% respectively.
The online sales trend of condiments is improving, and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) sales continue to rise. The total online sales of the three e-commerce condiment industries this month was 6.211 billion yuan (YoY + 18.36%). In February, the sales volume of tmall Taobao condiment was 3.945 billion yuan (YoY + 6.55%), JD condiment was 1.117 billion yuan (YoY + 72.68%), and pinduoduo condiment was 1.149 billion yuan (YoY + 27.90%) The total sales of online e-commerce platforms were 3.9 billion yuan and 3.8 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 3.9 billion yuan and 3.8 billion yuan respectively.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk; 2. Food safety risks; 3. Epidemic risk; 4. Risk that the economic growth rate is lower than expected; 5. Risk of incorrect and incomplete statistics of platform data.
