Key investment points:
The installed capacity data and component export data in the first two months of 2022 are outstanding. According to the statistical data of the national power industry from January to February released by the national energy administration, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation installed capacity was about 315.81 million KW, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year, and the new installed capacity was 10.86 million KW, an increase of 2.34 times year-on-year. From January to February 2022, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and components exported a total of 46.73 billion yuan, an increase of 110% year-on-year Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) the rapid growth of component exports is expected to be related to India’s tariff increase in April, advance goods preparation and the decline of component prices.
Silicon materials and components prices rose slightly. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the average transaction price of China’s single crystal re feeding rose to 247800 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.49%; The average transaction price of single crystal dense materials rose to 245300 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. This week, the price still maintained a slight rise, which was consistent with expectations. It was mainly due to the superposition of factors such as the lower than expected increase of China’s silicon supply in March, the high operating rate of existing silicon wafer enterprises, and the rapid release progress of silicon wafer production expansion increment, resulting in a phased shortage of silicon in the whole March. The prices of 365375 / 440450w single crystal perc module, 182mm single crystal perc module and 210mm single crystal perc module were 1.87, 1.89 and 1.89 yuan / watt respectively, with a month on month increase of 1.1%, 0.5% and 0.5%; The prices of double-sided and double glass components were 1.91 yuan and 1.91 yuan / watt respectively, up 0.5% and 0.5% month on month.
Enterprises at the head of the photovoltaic industry chain have carried out large-scale production expansion Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and other enterprises announced to sign major investment agreements or foreign investment announcements to expand the production capacity of silicon rods, silicon wafers, batteries, silicon materials, photovoltaic glass and other links and improve the medium and long-term market scale. With the help of the financing advantages of the capital market and its own industry status, the head enterprises can accelerate the expansion of production. On the one hand, it can meet the strong market demand under the transformation of clean energy. On the other hand, it is conducive to consolidating the industry status and giving full play to the scale effect. However, it is also necessary to prevent the risk of stage supply-demand mismatch, insufficient profitability and tight capital caused by blind expansion.
Maintain the investment rating of “stronger than the market” in the industry. As of March 21, 2022, PE (TTM) of photovoltaic sector is 43.89 times and Pb (LF) is valued at 5.55 times, which is above the historical median. In this round of market adjustment, the photovoltaic sector is relatively resistant to decline, and the resilience is also weaker than the market. Short term market bottoms may be repeated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the field of thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and inverter with reasonable valuation in the medium and long term.
Risk warning: systemic risk; The price decline of raw materials is less than expected; The global installed demand is lower than expected; Periodic supply-demand mismatch, overcapacity and the risk of declining profitability.
