Report summary
Production profile of national power industry from January to February 2022
The electricity consumption of the whole society was 1.35 trillion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and the CAGR in the same period from 2019 to 2022 was 6.8%.
The national power generation was 1.31 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, and the three-year CAGR was 6.2%.
The installed capacity of power plants above the national standard was 2.234 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and the three-year CAGR was 8.0%.
The newly installed capacity of power plants above the national standard was 23.49 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 50.7%, and the three-year CAGR was 25.5%.
The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China were 597 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and the three-year CAGR was – 0.8%.
The total investment of major power enterprises in China was 78.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and the three-year CAGR was 17.2%.
Key indicators
Electricity consumption: the cold winter is late, and the secondary industry has warmed up.
Power generation: hydropower can be expected in good years, and the inflection point of thermal power looms.
Utilization hours: wind and light fall, and nuclear, fire and water rise.
New installed capacity: the new installed capacity of wind and light accounts for more than 70%.
Project investment: power grid, photovoltaic and thermal power increased year-on-year.
Investment advice
The expected La Nina cold winter came late, superimposed with the disturbance of the Spring Festival, and the power consumption of the whole society increased by 16.9% year-on-year in February. Compared with the last two months of 2021, the growth rate of secondary production has warmed up, slightly higher than the level in October 2021.
Although the wet season has not yet arrived, whether it is the flood season coming in advance or the excessive water inflow, it partially verifies our previous prediction that the water inflow will improve in 2022. Combined with the peak production of Southwest hydropower, hydropower is expected to usher in a bumper harvest year. The increase of hydropower output may form a certain degree of pressure on coal price, and the improvement of thermal power cost may begin to appear gradually in the second quarter, which is also in line with our previous prediction. The hydropower sector recommends China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , and carefully recommends Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) ; Recommended for thermal power sector Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , recommended by nuclear power sector, and Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) , recommended with caution; Recommended by scenery operation section China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) .
Risk tips
Utilization hours decline: macroeconomic operation will affect utilization hours;
Fluctuation of on grid price: electricity market-oriented transaction may cause fluctuation of on grid price;
Rising coal prices: for thermal power enterprises dominated by coal engines, rising fuel costs will reduce profits;
Precipitation reduction: the operating performance of hydropower mainly depends on the incoming water and consumption;
The policy promotion is not as expected: the policy regulation on electricity price always exists, and the state of power supply and demand may affect the construction of new projects.
