Summary of this issue:
The overall performance of mainland hotels in February: the occupancy rate and average house price jointly led to the year-on-year increase of RevPAR. In February 22, the Chinese mainland hotel occupancy rate was 45.1%, which was 9.4pct higher than that in February 21, and declined by 11.4pct compared with 19 in February. The average house price was 431 yuan / night, an increase of 7.2% over February 21, and recovered to 85.8% in the same period of 19 years. RevPAR was 195 yuan / night. Driven by the double increase of rental rate and average house price, RevPAR increased significantly by 35.4% compared with February 21 and recovered to 68.5% in the same period of 19 years.
Overall performance of medium and high-end hotels in mainland China in February: ADR recovery was weaker than the whole. In February 22, the occupancy rate of high-end hotels in Chinese mainland was 44.6%, slightly below the overall average level, rising by 11.0pct compared with 21 in February and 19 below 2 in February. The average house price is 334 yuan / night, an increase of 10.5% compared with February 21, and recovered to 75.6% in the same period of 19 years. The recovery is weaker than the whole. RevPAR was 149 yuan / night. Driven by the double increase of rental rate and average house price, RevPAR increased significantly by 46.5% compared with February 21 and recovered to 64.6% in the same period of 19 years.
Conclusion: the fluctuation of the operating data of the mainland hotel industry is still highly related to the spread and recurrence of the epidemic. Although the recurrence of the epidemic intensified in February 22, the rental rate and average house price increased, driving RevPAR to improve. The RevPAR recovery of medium and high-end hotels is still not as good as the whole, which is mainly reflected in the weaker recovery of average house prices than the whole.
Investment suggestion: hotel performance is still greatly affected by the spread of the epidemic, but the overall supply and demand pattern is good, mainly reflected in the clearing of supply. In the months from April to July of 21, when the epidemic was less prevalent, RevPAR overall recovered to more than 80% in the same period of 19 years; With the impact of the epidemic on the supply of the hotel industry (especially single hotels), the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to improve. It has medium and long-term investment logic, including the opportunities for rapid store expansion and structural optimization brought by the improvement of supply and demand pattern and the improvement of chain rate. It is suggested to focus on Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group and Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) .
Risk factors: the impact of repeated epidemic on the tourism industry and the impact of macro-economy on the tourism industry.
