\u3000\u30003 An Hui Wenergy Company Limited(000543) 00054)
Main points:
Printing and copying general consumables started, and photoelectric semiconductor material business created the second growth pole
The company started with printing and copying general consumables business, with a high-quality gene of heavy research and development. It has broken the monopoly of foreign products in the field of consumables for many times, and realized the layout of the whole industry chain of consumables with the help of endogenous extension. The company focuses on the import substitution of high-end new materials, enters the field of high-end materials and continuously enriches the product matrix. In terms of CMP consumables, polishing pad + polishing fluid + diamond disc + cleaning fluid realize the full coverage of main consumables in CMP link. In terms of panel materials, PI slurry + photoresist for OLED display process, PSPI + flexible display panel packaging material ink and other multi-point layout, so as to create an innovative material platform enterprise. The company is the industry leader in the printing and copying general consumables business in China, develops the optoelectronic semiconductor material business and carries out platform layout, continues to promote technological integration and accumulate industry know-how, and the new star of materials is rising.
CMP polishing pad: the key material for wafer manufacturing, and the three drivers help the company go steady and far
According to SEMI, the global semiconductor material market in 2020 will reach US $55 billion 300 million, and it will reach US $56 billion 500 million in 2021, up 4.82% over the same period last year. The Chinese mainland's semiconductor materials market in 2020 will be 9 billion 763 million, the second largest in the world, up 12% over the same period last year, and the fastest growing market in the world. On the supply side, oligopoly is unsustainable under the trend of supply chain security, and domestic capital is expected to start a wave of domestic substitution; Demand side, driving the expansion of the wafer factory is significant, and is expected to drive the material market up: according to SEMI, from 2017 to 2020, the total number of new semiconductor production lines in the world increased to 62, of which Chinese mainland has 26 production lines, accounting for 42%, and the new capacity of 22 to 23 years is expected to be released. Drive the continuous upgrading of the second wafer manufacturing process and drive the increase of CMP consumption: take the OEM leader TSMC as an example, 70-80% of its $40 billion capital expenditure in 2022 will be used for advanced processes. The upgrading of the process will lead to an increase in the consumption of polishing steps and CMP consumables; Driving the multi-point flowering of three emerging applications and driving the growth of CMP material demand: in terms of consumer electronics, the penetration rate of 5g mobile phones is increasing, and the development of aiot such as smart wear is in the ascendant; Metauniverse helps the development of AR / VR terminals; In terms of automobiles, the trend of electrification and intelligence is significant, and the demand for vehicle rail semiconductors is about to burst. At present, the company is in a leading position in China's polishing pad Market. Its products have entered China's mainstream wafer factories and become the primary supply of some manufacturers. With the gradual release of the company's new production capacity, its future performance can be expected.
Polishing liquid: the new product has passed the customer verification and entered the ton level procurement stage
According to techcet, in 2021, the global polishing fluid market for wafer manufacturing will grow from US $1.66 billion in 2020 to US $1.8 billion, with a growth rate of 8%, and the compound growth rate is expected to be 6% in the next five years. On March 10, 2022, the company announced that the alumina polishing solution products of Wuhan dingze, a subsidiary, had passed the Al CMP process verification of the customer's 28nm node HKMG process, and had entered the ton procurement stage. The alumina abrasive particles and high molecular polymers used in the new products are the key materials with the most difficult technology in all polishing fluids. This time, the company broke through the technical difficulties, once again demonstrated its strong material self-research ability, further enriched the company's product matrix and thickened the company's performance.
Cleaning fluid: the process is upgraded, the cleaning steps are greatly improved, and the product verification and capacity construction are promoted simultaneously
With the continuous upgrading of semiconductor manufacturing process, the requirements for flattening layers and flattening are becoming higher and higher. Advanced packaging and next-generation logic and memory devices will accelerate the growth of cleaning fluid market. Taking the logic chip manufacturing process as an example, the total number of process steps required by 5 nanotechnology nodes will increase from about 400 times of 28 nanotechnology nodes to more than 1200 times, of which the number of cleaning process steps accounts for 25 ~ 30% of the total process steps, further driving the demand for high-end wet electronic chemicals such as cleaning fluid. The company's product verification and capacity construction are carried out simultaneously, and the first phase of the cleaning solution production line with an annual output of 2000 tons in Wuhan headquarters has been preliminarily completed. The subsidiary dingze new material has started the research on 28 ~ 14nm advanced process cleaning solution products, and prospectively planned to develop the corresponding CMP preparation cleaning solution for special processes and film materials. At the same time, the capacity construction of phase II cleaning solution will be prepared in the field layout, waiting for the capacity to bloom.
Panel material: the prosperity of flexible display continues to improve, YPI ton shipment, PSPI + ink sample delivery
According to canalys, in 2021, the shipment volume of folding screen smartphones reached 8.9 million, with a year-on-year increase of 148%, while the overall smartphone market only increased by 7%. It is predicted that the annual shipment volume of global folding screen smartphones will exceed 30 million in 2024, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2024 will be 53%. The company's YPI products are sold vigorously and continue to obtain ton orders. The new PSPI and ink have entered the pilot stage and entered the client test. As the first enterprise in China to realize mass production and ton sales of PI slurry for flexible OLED display substrate material, the company continues to promote new product R & D and technology integration, accumulate industry know-how, and continuously enrich the product matrix, which is expected to fully benefit from this round of upward wave of flexible display.
Printing and copying general consumables: the integration effect of general consumables is obvious, and the performance is growing steadily
General consumables for deep ploughing, printing and copying for 20 years, and realize the layout of the whole industrial chain with the help of endogenous extension. Starting with the charge regulator of color toner, the company marches upstream of the industrial chain by carrying out color polymerized toner business, consumable chip and developing roller business, and arranges toner cartridges and recycled ink cartridges to supplement the downstream business of the industrial chain, so as to realize the linkage between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and enhance the overall competitiveness. We believe that as the company gradually completes the layout of the whole industrial chain of consumables business, the market share will gradually increase, and the market share of printing and copying general consumables of the company is expected to further increase.
Investment advice
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 225 million, RMB 358 million and RMB 550 million, with the corresponding P / E ratio of 87, 55 and 36 times. The company is given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips
Production capacity construction is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, and the external environment disturbs the industrial chain
