\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Event:
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 7.982 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 86.37%, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 2.718 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 143.60%, a net profit attributable to the parent after deduction of Non Profits of RMB 2.566 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 159.10%, and a basic earnings per share of RMB 3.06. Year on year + 128.36%.
Key investment points:
The performance growth is in line with expectations and the profitability continues to improve. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.643 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 55.34%, a month on month increase of + 35.89%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 962 million, a year-on-year increase of + 103.80%, a month on month increase of + 36.43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 938 million, a year-on-year increase of + 117.66% and a month on month increase of + 45.51%. The company’s shipment volume is expected to reach 3.05 billion square meters in 2021, of which Q4 shipment volume is expected to reach 1.07 billion square meters. On the whole last year, quarterly profitability gradually improved.
Steadily expand production, bind high-quality major customers at home and abroad, and ensure capacity digestion and profitability improvement. The company is expected to have a production capacity of 7 billion square meters by the end of 2022 and 10 billion square meters by the end of 2023. The company has signed a guarantee agreement of RMB 5.178 billion in 2022 with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) company; Signed a US $258 million procurement contract with ultium cells up to 2024; Signed a supply agreement with China Innovation airlines with a total amount of no more than 2.5 billion yuan in 2022; And signed a supply agreement with a large overseas automobile enterprise with a total of no more than 1.65 billion square meters from 2022 to 2024. Large scale orders from high-quality customers at home and abroad can ensure the complete release of the company’s new production capacity and the improvement of the efficiency of large-scale production.
Benefiting from the release of production capacity and the increase of coating proportion, the profit is better. The company has 1 online coating production line, which is expected to reach 34 in 2022 and 56 in 2023. The growth rate exceeds the expansion speed of diaphragm production line. It is estimated that the Q4 coating proportion of the company will reach 30% in 2021 and the Q1 coating proportion will reach 35% in 2022. The single average net profit of coated products is higher than that of base film. With the increase of downstream demand for coated products and the gradual release of coating capacity, the profitability will be gradually enhanced.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company benefits from the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles, driving the rapid growth of power battery demand and the gradual increase of energy storage space, with strong downstream demand. The company’s gradual expansion of production and the increase of the proportion of coated diaphragm will drive the increase of gross profit margin in the future. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2023 will be 15.838 billion yuan and 19.966 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.797 billion yuan and 7.634 billion yuan. The current share price corresponds to PE of 36.2x and 27.5x, which is rated as “buy”.
Risk tips: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the downstream demand is lower than expected, the capacity expansion is lower than expected, the equipment delivery speed is lower than expected, the price competition in the industry is intensified, etc.
