Guangting information (301221)
Event: the company issued the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan (Draft), which plans to grant 2.96 million restricted shares to 247 directors, senior executives and core technicians (including 2605000 shares for the first time and 355000 shares reserved), accounting for about 3.2% of the total share capital. The source of the underlying shares involved is the company’s A-share common shares (class II restricted shares) issued by the company to the incentive objects, The grant price is 35.98 yuan per share.
Vesting period arrangement and unlocking conditions: the restricted stock sales periods granted for the first time in this incentive plan are 12 months, 24 months and 36 months respectively from the date of the first grant, and the vesting proportion of the three periods is 40% / 30% / 30%. The unlocking conditions of the first grant are as follows: 1) company level: the target of 100% ownership proportion at the level of phase III company is based on the revenue of 21 years, and the revenue growth rate of 22 / 23 / 24 years is not less than 35% / 65% / 95%; The target of 80% ownership ratio is based on the revenue of 21 years, and the revenue growth rate of 22 / 23 / 24 years is no less than 30% / 55% / 75%. 2) Personal level: according to the comprehensive evaluation of the incentive object in the assessment year, it is divided into six grades A-F, and the ownership proportion of individual level a-c is 100%; D-f gear, the attribution ratio is 0.
Estimated impact of the implementation of restricted shares on the operating performance of each period: it is assumed that 2605000 restricted shares will be granted to the incentive object for the first time in mid April 2022, and the underlying stock price on the grant date is 68.15 yuan (closing price on March 21), and the estimated total amortization cost of the first grant is about 87.23 million yuan. The amortization expense of each period in 22-25 years is expected to be 3970 / 3201 / 1287 / 2640000 yuan respectively.
Equity incentive helps core employees to bind in depth, ride the wave of industry intelligence, and the company’s performance can be expected to increase. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the whole year of 21 years is about 15%, and the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in a single month in December is about 23%. The “arms race” of flagship models of new and old brands in terms of intelligence is also becoming increasingly intense (for example, lidar has gradually become the standard of flagship models). Under the background of electric and intelligent speed-up in the industry, the trend of software defined automobile is surging, and the automobile third-party software development market will usher in rapid growth. We expect that the global / China tier2 bottom software development market will be expected to be 69.7/24.4 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 24% / 26% respectively. The competitive pattern of “high gagr + high fragmentation in the industry” provides considerable development space for rising stars such as Guangting. Jiacheng company’s scarce full stack capacity, high-quality customer base, advanced “super software factory” development mode and stable core team are optimistic that the company’s revenue will maintain a high growth, and its profitability will continue to improve with the precipitation of IP and reusable modules.
Maintain the profit expectation and “buy” rating of the company: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 79 / 134 / 181 million respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.85/1.45/1.95 yuan respectively. Give the company a target P / E of 75-80x in 2022 (corresponding to peg of 1.06-1.13), and the target price is 108.74-115.98 yuan.
Risk tip: the overall prosperity of the intelligent automobile industry has declined; The development process of intelligent cockpit business customers is less than expected; The order status of intelligent electronic control business is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
