\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
Question 1: how is the company's operation and share price affected by the real estate industry?
We believe that from the perspective of the customer structure of Glodon Company Limited(002410) the real estate developers account for only 10%, and the market is too worried about the impact of the downturn of the real estate industry on Glodon Company Limited(002410) performance. The company's share price was previously suppressed by the pessimistic downward expectation of the real estate industry. At present, the special meeting of the State Council has alleviated the expectation of the downward risk of the operation of some real estate enterprises, and it is expected that the impact of the real estate sentiment on the company's share price will be alleviated.
Question 2: in the face of a new round of epidemic, how does the company affect its performance and operation?
We believe that the current epidemic prevention and control is serious. Compared with the computer companies whose income accounts for a large proportion, most of them are from the on-site and need to be implemented. Facing the risk that it is difficult for downstream customers to carry out short-term business due to the epidemic, the subscription income of Glodon Company Limited(002410) cost cloud SaaS will probably not be affected by the reduction of demand, smoothing the periodicity caused by the change of downstream demand, which is expected to provide good performance support for the company in the first half of 22 years, It has obvious advantages in investment cost performance.
Question 3: Glodon Company Limited(002410) what is the current valuation level?
Glodon Company Limited(002410) 's current PE (TTM) and PS (TTM) valuations are 20.17% and 17.99% of the quantiles in the past three years. We believe that it is in the position of low valuations in the past three years. The closing price on March 18 was 48.7 yuan, which was lower than the current public average repurchase price of 62.9 yuan (February 28, 22), with a difference of 22.58%.
Question 4: how to view the localization trend of construction software?
We believe that Autodesk's shutdown of Russia shows that the autonomy of core software is the inevitable trend of the long-term development of the software industry Glodon Company Limited(002410) has an independent and controllable BIM application solution, which shows that the company has a leading advantage in the localization of construction software. Among them, the company has invested in the development of a three-dimensional graphics engine with completely independent intellectual property rights for many years, which is the key to the realization of autonomy.
Question 5: how to treat the company's construction and design business?
We believe that the development of construction and design business will help to improve and build the closed loop of the overall business cycle, and it is expected to maximize the use of information advantages to empower the construction industry in the long term. The penetration rate of the construction industry is low, the digital construction business is still in the early stage of large-scale development, and the primary goal of the company is still to expand business rapidly. The design business will enter the promotion period in the next 2-3 years, and the number of users and market share will be the core performance objectives of the design business.
Investment suggestion: considering that the current special meeting of the State Council has alleviated the expectation of downward risks in the operation of some real estate enterprises, it is expected that the impact of real estate sentiment on the company's share price will be alleviated Glodon Company Limited(002410) cost cloud revenue will probably not be reduced by the short-term business demand of the downstream due to the difficulty of the epidemic. It is expected to provide good performance support for the company in the first half of 22 years and have obvious advantages in investment cost performance. We maintain the profit forecast for 21-23 years, with the expected revenue of 54.06/68.46/8.261 billion and net profit of 693/10.81/1.386 billion, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the negative impact of the epidemic and the real estate industry exceeded expectations, and the development of construction and design business was less than expected
