\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 979 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) )
Matters:
The company released its annual report for 2021. The annual revenue was 160.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%; The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.54 yuan per share (including tax).
Ping An View:
Due to multiple factors, the performance has declined, and the outstanding resources are still abundant. The company’s revenue increased by 23.9% year-on-year in 2021, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 15.3% year-on-year, mainly due to: 1) affected by the high land price and price limit, the gross profit margin of sales decreased by 3.2pct to 25.5% year-on-year in 2021; 2) Based on the principle of prudence, the provision for impairment was 4.37 billion yuan, reducing the net profit attributable to the parent company by 3.46 billion yuan; 3) The proportion of equity in settlement projects decreased, and the proportion of minority shareholders’ profits and losses in 2021 increased by 4.2pct to 31.8% year-on-year; 4) The investment income from the transfer of subsidiaries decreased by 2.45 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of the period, the total value of advance receipts and contract liabilities increased by 13.5% year-on-year to 148.84 billion yuan. At the same time, the company plans to increase the completed area by 10% year-on-year in 2022, laying the foundation for the release of future performance.
The sales ranking rose to seventh, and the investment was relatively positive. In 2021, the company achieved a sales area of 14.645 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. The sales amount was 326.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. The growth rate of sales amount and area was significantly better than that of the whole country (4.8% and 1.9%), and the sales ranking rose to the seventh in the industry; The company plans to achieve a sales amount of 330 billion yuan in 2022, a steady increase over 2021. In terms of land acquisition, the company acquired an area of 15.59 million square meters in 2021, with a sales area ratio of 106%, and its investment is significantly higher than that of other mainstream real estate enterprises. At the same time, it focuses on key cities, accounting for more than 70% of the investment in the Yangtze River Delta and the urban agglomeration of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. In the “strong heart 30 cities” designated by the company, the equity land price investment accounts for 90% of the total investment. The company acquired the property right of more than 12.5 million square meters and acquired the land storage area of more than 12.5 million square meters through the linkage of bidding and auction, and obtained the estimated land storage area of more than 12.5 million square meters. The company also actively plans to establish Shanghai urban renewal fund with state-owned enterprises in Shanghai, with a total scale of about 80 billion yuan, which is the largest urban renewal fund in China.
China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) opened the prelude to M & A, and high-quality development can be expected China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) as the asset light operation service platform of the company, the company made clear the strategic goal of catching up with and surpassing the carry forward, achieved a breakthrough in investment and M & A during the period, successfully delisted Shanghai Airlines property and China Southern Airlines property, locked in the capital increase of Shenzhen Huiqin, and formed a set of promotion mode for high-quality subject-matter M & A; In the whole year, the newly signed annual contract amount of property management business was 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%; At the end of the period, the area under management reached 281 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 47%.
Maintain the “green file” level and further reduce the financing cost. At the end of the period, the cash on hand of the company was 79.5 billion yuan, and the cash short debt ratio calculated according to the regulatory criteria reached 125%. At the end of the period, the asset liability ratio and net debt ratio excluding advance receipts and contract liabilities were 61.7% and 42.8% respectively. The three indicators continued to meet the requirements of “three red lines”; During the period, the company actively carried out direct financing, and the coupon rate repeatedly hit a new low in the interest rate of real estate corporate bonds in similar time. It effectively adjusted the debt structure and significantly reduced the comprehensive financing cost. The annual comprehensive capital cost decreased by 22bp to 4.48% compared with 2020.
Investment suggestion: maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS in 20222023 will be 1.32 yuan and 1.39 yuan, and the new EPS forecast in 2024 will be 1.51 yuan. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 10.2 times, 9.7 times and 9.0 times respectively. The short-term industry policy side continues to improve, which is expected to bring about the repair of sector valuation; In the medium and long term, as the leader of central enterprises, the company has stable finance, prominent financing advantages and active land acquisition and investment, which is expected to drive the gradual recovery of performance. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term performance of the company and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) if the pressure of de commercialization in the real estate market continues, resulting in the exchange of sales price for volume, the company’s settlement gross profit margin will further decline, and there will be an impairment risk of high price in the early stage; 2) If the policy care is less than expected, it will have a negative impact on the scale development of the company, resulting in lower performance than expected; 3) There is uncertainty risk in the construction and development progress of the company’s industrial new town.
