\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.44%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.82%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 995 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.51%.
Comments:
The revenue and profit rose to a higher level, and the cost control continued to be strengthened. In the fourth quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.826 billion yuan, an increase of 18.19% month on month, a net profit attributable to the parent of 464 million yuan, an increase of 69.18% month on month, and a deduction of 403 million yuan of non attributable net profit, an increase of 81.08% month on month. We expect that there are two main reasons: (1) the supply optimization superimposes the strong demand, and the food additives usher in a boom; (2) The production capacity of 5000 t / a sucralose and other fine chemical projects is gradually released, and the growth of the company continues to highlight. In 2021, the total expense rate of the company was 7.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.74pct. Among them, the sales expense rate was 1.18%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29pct, the management expense (including R & D expenses, comparable caliber) rate was 5.69%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92pct, and the financial expense rate was 0.39%, a year-on-year increase of 0.47pct. The company continued to promote cost control and realize cost reduction and efficiency increase in all links of the value chain such as R & D, production and sales.
The supply is optimized and the demand is strong, and the food additives are expected to continue to boom. According to Baichuan information, sucralose continued to rise from 205000 yuan / ton in August to 480000 yuan / ton in December, and the current market quotation is 380000 Yuan / ton; Ansaimi continued to rise from 62000 yuan / ton in August to 95000 yuan / ton in October, and the current quotation is 80000 yuan / ton; Methyl malt powder continued to rise from 95000 yuan / ton in August to 150000 yuan / ton in October, and the current quotation is 110000 yuan / ton; Ethyl malt powder continued to rise from 85000 yuan / ton in August to 180000 yuan / ton in October, and the current quotation is 95000 yuan / ton. In the short term, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the Winter Olympics and the global epidemic, the demand for sweeteners in February is weak, and the product price has dropped. It is expected that with the warmer weather, the purchase demand for beverages is expected to be released. In the long run, the global sugar substitution trend continues. According to the white paper on sugar reduction action of healthy Chinese beverages and foods (2021), it is expected that China's sugar free beverage industry will maintain double-digit growth in the next few years. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply side industry is affected, while the supporting advantages of the company's industrial chain are prominent, and the core competitiveness is expected to be further improved.
Plan repurchase for equity incentive to demonstrate confidence in long-term development. The company plans to repurchase its shares with its own funds of RMB 75-150 million. Under the condition that the repurchase price does not exceed 55 yuan / share, according to the upper limit amount, the number of shares repurchased is expected to be about 273 shares (about 0.49% of the total share capital). According to the lower limit amount of repurchase, the number of shares repurchased is expected to be about 1363636 shares (about 0.24% of the total share capital), demonstrating the company's long-term development confidence.
The industrial chain extends upward, continues to reduce costs, and extends downward to enrich the product matrix. Upward extension: (1) 30000 T / a DMF project is arranged to provide raw materials for sucralose. At present, relevant administrative examination and approval are actively promoted. (2) The construction of sulfoxide chloride phase II project has started. At present, the main project has been completed, and the project construction will be actively promoted in the follow-up. The downward extension part, according to the official account of the January 21st public number of the kolkai Lai, will establish a strategic partnership around many fields such as natural sweeteners, food raw materials and sugar reducing. It will focus on the commercialization of synthetic biotechnology in the field of food reduction and use of synthetic biotechnology to achieve a new way of healthy sugar reduction. According to the company's annual report, Jinhe Chemical Materials Research Institute has completed staffing and optimization, carried out process optimization, process route of furfural downstream products, expanded R & D reserves of biological fermentation products and other projects around the company's existing products, and further developed bio based technologies, materials and related industrial chains. In the future, through the construction of Dingyuan base, the company is expected to further expand the development space, enrich the product matrix and thicken the enterprise moat.
Profit forecast: considering the rise in product prices, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.81 billion yuan (formerly 1.62 billion yuan), 1.94 billion yuan (formerly 1.75 billion yuan) and 1.86 billion yuan (New), respectively, corresponding to 12.4 times, 11.6 times and 12.1 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the downstream demand does not meet expectations, the production capacity is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials fluctuates
