\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 24 Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) )
Key investment points
Event: 1) it is planned to repurchase shares for equity incentive, which has been carried out at present: on the evening of March 17, the company announced the repurchase announcement, and planned to repurchase the company’s shares with its own funds of RMB 100200 million, accounting for 0.05% – 0.11%, for the implementation of employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive; On March 18, the Company repurchased 681000 shares for the first time by means of centralized bidding (accounting for 0.0258% of the total share capital), with a total transaction amount of 38.3 million yuan (excluding transaction costs). 2) Establish Nanjing Huichuan and deepen the business layout of lead screw and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) business: the company plans to establish Nanjing Huichuan and purchase the land and housing construction under the name of Nanjing Jiangning Economic and technological development group with its own or self raised capital of 1.65 billion yuan for the production, R & D and office land of lead screw and industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) .
The industrial control sector will continue to reflect strong operation in 2021 α， We estimate that 2022q1 orders have a bright performance, far exceeding the growth of the industry, and are expected to reach 30-40% year-on-year growth in the whole year. Q1 company orders are significantly stronger than the industry, and alpha is very strong. The general business division is expected to maintain 30% + growth this year. Emerging businesses in growth period ( Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) etc.): 1) Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) & lead screw: the company continues to expand categories, layout core components such as Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and lead screw, cooperate with PLC, CNC and other products to pull through the control layer platform, and make rapid customized development for many downstream needs. 2) Others: the company has made breakthroughs in energy storage converters (PCS) and energy management and control systems. In addition, industrial Internet, motors and other products are also strengthening the layout, which is expected to contribute to the performance increment in the medium and long term.
New energy vehicles: in 2021, ideal & Xiaopeng and other new power customers will continue to increase their volume, and the business income of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 2.5-3 billion yuan, which is expected to start making profits in 2022. 1) New forces: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) is expected to expand from supplying ideal, Xiaopeng and other electronic control products to three in one and other overall solutions, and ASP will continue to improve; 2) Domestic automobile enterprises: the great wall power supply project is expected to be large-scale and grow in 2022. At the same time, the company continues to screen high-quality vehicle projects; 3) Overseas: continue to focus on power products and continue to increase investment in R & D this year to seek breakthroughs.
Share repurchase is used as a new equity incentive to demonstrate business confidence. In terms of industrial control, PLC and servo have entered a period of rapid growth, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and other emerging businesses have taken over the “nth growth curve”, and new fixed points of new energy vehicles need to be broken through, so large pre investment is required in R & D and sales. The company adheres to 2-3 years of continuous equity incentive (five periods of equity incentive have been carried out in History), increases the interest binding of core personnel, and helps to climb to a higher peak forever.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 3.53 billion yuan / 4.39 billion yuan / 5.69 billion yuan respectively (considering the amortization of equity incentive expenses), 68% / + 24% / + 30% year-on-year (deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company to be 2.96 billion yuan / 4.09 billion yuan / 5.34 billion yuan respectively, 55% / + 38% / + 31% year-on-year), corresponding to 43x times, 35x times and 27x times of the current price PE respectively. We consider the strong operation of the company in the industrial control industry α、 As well as the leading position of domestic investment in motor electric control, the target price is given as 83.5 yuan, corresponding to 50 times PE in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, downstream demand does not meet expectations, new energy vehicle customer expansion is less than expected, competition intensifies, etc.
