\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 15 Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) )
Recommendation logic: 1) the company has stripped off its chemical and environmental protection businesses and continued to focus on the main pharmaceutical industry. The company has sufficient motivation for long-term development; 2) The company is the absolute leader of vitamin AD supplements, with significant brand advantages and 5 billion market space gradually released; 3) The company's second-line varieties continue to be abundant. Vitamin D drops (idxin) and compound calcium carbonate effervescent granules (gedixin) are expected to accelerate the volume. The compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 24.5% in the next three years, with sufficient growth momentum.
Continue to focus on the main pharmaceutical industry, and the company has sufficient power for long-term development. In 2020, the shareholder of "Huate holding", the largest shareholder of the company, was changed from Shandong University to Shandong State owned Assets Investment Holding Co., Ltd., and the actual controller of the company was changed from Shandong University to Shandong SASAC. At present, the company has gradually implemented the reform of the state-owned asset management system. The company has stripped off the chemical business and environmental protection business. In the future, the company will continue to focus on the main pharmaceutical industry. At present, the revenue of the core subsidiary Dayin pharmaceutical industry has increased from 910 million yuan in 2018 to 1.47 billion yuan in 2021, and the net profit has increased from 220 million yuan to 660 million yuan. The profitability has been continuously improved and the long-term development momentum is sufficient.
Vitamin AD supplements are the absolute leader, with 5 billion market space gradually released. The deficiency of vitamin A and vitamin D in Chinese children is still a public health problem. The way of vitamin AD supplement is suitable for the current situation of Chinese children. According to the survey, the vitamin A / D deficiency rate of Chinese children is more than 40%. According to the calculation, the estimated permeability of vitamin AD supplement in Chinese children aged 0-3 years in 2021 is about 21.4%, which still has great room for growth. At present, the market competition pattern of vitamin AD supplements is good, in which ikoxin occupies more than 50% of the market share, is the absolute leader, the brand is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the peak sales is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan, and there is a large growth space.
Second tier varieties continue to be abundant, with sufficient driving force for performance growth. At present, the company's second-line varieties are gradually increasing, including vitamin D drops (yidexin), compound calcium carbonate effervescent granules (gaidixin), licorice zinc granules (yiganxin), iron dextran granules (yijiaxin), oral rehydration salt powder, azithromycin granules, rifaximin dry suspension, etc. it is expected that with the continuous enrichment of the company's second-line varieties, the company's performance is expected to maintain steady growth for a long time.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 24.5%. The company is the leader of vitamin AD drops. Its core products have large growth space and strong competitiveness. The second-line varieties of the company are gradually enriched, and the driving force for performance growth is sufficient. It is optimistic about the long-term development of the company.
Risk tips: product price reduction risk, R & D risk less than expected, and other policy risks in the pharmaceutical industry.
