\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 779 Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) )
Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) was born in China Minmetals Group and positioned as the core unit of new energy materials of the group
Relying on the actual control of China Minmetals resources, it has formed a business pattern dominated by ternary cathode, supplemented by lithium cobalt oxide cathode and spherical nickel, and has three production bases: Lugu, Tongguan and high tech.
Optimize the product structure, continuously increase the proportion of high nickel, bind the head customers and expand overseas
After the influence of subsidies is weakened, market competition makes car factories and battery factories choose reasonably. Different material characteristics correspond to different application fields, which determines the change of material proportion. High nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate develop in parallel. Following the trend, the company quickly switched from lithium cobalt oxide to ternary cathode, and the proportion of ternary cathode revenue increased from 42% to 85% in 20172020; Further, we will actively distribute high nickel ternary and gradually optimize the product structure. It is expected that the proportion of high nickel shipments will increase to about 40% in 2021. At the same time, the company binds Chinese head customers Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Byd Company Limited(002594) Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and actively expands overseas markets, and cooperates with enterprises such as Toyota, Murata, Samsung SDI and LG chemistry to effectively ensure the order quality of the company.
Low material and processing costs, highlighting the ability of management and control, and significant advantages of integrated layout
From 2018 to 2020, compared with the average level of the three competitors, the cost of ternary cathode materials per ton was 1.46/1.512100 yuan lower and the processing cost of ternary cathode per ton was 27 / 0.757000 yuan lower respectively, showing a strong ability to control the material and processing cost. Jinchi materials, a subsidiary, was once in the first echelon of the ternary precursor industry. After the reorganization, the company mastered the core links and actively contracted the export sales. All of them were converted to self supply in 2020, and the technical transformation was increased to 30000 tons of precursor capacity in 2021, with a self supply rate of 60%. The cost advantage is significant, and the quality of cathode products is more stable and controllable.
The company’s production capacity increased rapidly and its performance continued to deliver
In 2021, the first line of ternary cathode in phase I of the company’s high-tech base was put into operation, with an effective capacity of 50000 tons. Subsequently, the continuous production capacity will be gradually implemented. It is expected that the effective production capacity of the company will reach 80000 / 120000 tons in 2022 / 2023. Meanwhile, 60000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode are under construction, forming an effective supply, and the performance will continue to be realized.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company on 21 / 22 / 23 will be RMB 7 / 12.9/1.946 billion respectively, EPS will be 0.36/0.67/1.01 respectively, and the corresponding P / E will be 52X / 28x / 19x. The “buy” rating will be given for the first time.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicles is less than expected; Capacity expansion and product development are less than expected; Material price fluctuation, etc.
