\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 297 Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) )
Core conclusion
China’s optical microscope is the leader, and the five year plan has accumulated a lot. The earliest history of the company can be traced back to Jiangnan optical instrument factory established in 1943. Its main business covers microscope and optical element components, accounting for 37% / 61% of its revenue in 21 years. In 20 years, the company has formulated the “five five” strategic plan, that is, five times the output value and five times the efficiency in five years. In 21 years, the company achieved revenue and net profit of RMB 800 / 260 million, a year-on-year increase of 40% / 62%.
Microscope: benefit from the deterministic trend of localization of scientific instruments. The global microscope market is dominated by Zeiss, Leica, Nikon and Olympus, with a total share of more than 50%. China’s high-end microscope depends on imports, and the Sino US trade dispute accelerates the localization of scientific instruments. The company is the champion of single manufacturing of optical microscope in China. In 21 years, it has achieved mass production and small batch sales of confocal microscope, and solved the “neck sticking” technology. According to our calculation, the market space of stock and increment confocal microscope in 21 years is RMB 2.12 billion and RMB 420 million.
Automotive optics: enjoy the wave of automotive intelligence. 1) Lidar: 22 years is the first year of mass production of lidar, and the penetration will be accelerated in the next few years. According to our calculation, the scale of lidar industry in 22 years is US $500 million, which is expected to reach US $5.6 billion in 25 years, and the CAGR in 22-25 years is 120.2%. Among them, the market scale of optical element components in 22 years is 600 million yuan, which is expected to reach 6.2 billion yuan in 25 years, and the CAGR in 22-25 years is 119.6%. The layout of the company in the field of lidar has the first mover advantage and technical advantage. It has developed a variety of optical element components applied to mechanical / semi-solid / all solid solutions, established cooperation with many manufacturers such as Hesai and innoviz, and expanded its business from optical element components to whole machine OEM. 2) Vehicle lens: the order of vehicle lens front film exceeded 800000 pieces / month in 21 years, mainly for Sony, laying the foundation for subsequent vehicle lens assembly.
Bar code lens & Machine Vision: due to the increasing demand for logistics control and the acceleration of intelligent transformation of factories, the demand for bar code scanners is growing rapidly and the business is growing rapidly. In addition, the company’s layout of high-end liquid lens is the world’s first enterprise to realize mass production of liquid lens, mainly for global machine vision leader kangnaishi.
Profit forecast and Valuation: it is estimated that the net profit of the company in 21-23 years will be RMB 262 / 281 / 379 million respectively, with 40 times PE in 23 years and the corresponding target price of RMB 137.2. It will be covered for the first time and rated as “overweight”.
Risk warning: Lidar business is not as expected; Bar code business is less than expected; The impact of exchange rate fluctuations.
