\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 979 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) )
Events
On March 21, 2022, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) issued the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 160.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 15%, and the earnings per share was 1.31 yuan / share; The cash dividend is 0.54 yuan / share, and the proportion of cash dividend is 40%.
Comments
The decrease of gross profit margin superimposed impairment provision, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was lower than expected. The company’s operating income in 2021 is in line with our expectations, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 19% lower than our expectations, mainly because: ① affected by the downturn of the real estate industry in 2021, the company’s carry forward gross profit margin is 25.47%, a decrease of 3.22pct compared with 2020; ② The company’s provision for impairment of inventories, investment properties and other assets totaled 4.372 billion yuan, an increase of 1.271 billion yuan over 2020; ③ The company’s investment income from the transfer of subsidiaries decreased by 2.445 billion yuan year-on-year. The decline of the company’s gross profit margin and impairment provision in 2021 are mainly affected by the industry as a whole. In 2021, the company controls the cost through multiple channels, and the profit margin carried forward by the project is expected to increase. At the same time, we expect that the regulation of the real estate industry will be loose in 2022, the market sales will gradually stabilize, and the company’s gross profit margin is expected to be gradually repaired.
The sales scale has increased steadily, and diversified reserves are distributed in core cities. The contracted sales amount of the company in 2021 was 326.8 billion yuan, ranking seventh in the industry, with a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the growth rate was in the forefront of the top 20 real estate enterprises; The deep cultivation has achieved remarkable results, with the sales scale of 7 cities ranking the top 3 locally and the sales scale of 16 cities ranking the top 10 locally. In 2021, a total of 15.59 million cubic meters of land storage and construction area (8.86 million cubic meters of equity) will be added, which will be obtained through industrial linkage, acquisition and merger, urban renewal and other channels, accounting for 53%; The layout of high-energy cities, strong heart 30 cities accounted for 90% of the investment, and the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta accounted for 70%.
Control the financing cost through multiple channels and “green file” at the three red lines. The financing cost of the company was 4.48% in 2021, a decrease of 22bp compared with 2020; After excluding advances received, the asset liability ratio is 61.67%, the net debt ratio is 42.82%, and the cash short debt ratio is 1.25, ranking in the “green gear”, with less debt repayment pressure.
Investment advice
Considering the decline of the company’s gross profit margin, but there is still support from sales, we adjusted the profit forecast and reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 from 14.07 billion yuan and 16.46 billion yuan to 10.84 billion yuan and 12.97 billion yuan, with a reduction range of – 22.9% and – 21.2% respectively. At the same time, we added 15.7 billion yuan of the predicted value of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024. The adjusted target price is 16.42 yuan / share, corresponding to 12.0x, 10.0x and 8.3x PE in 202224 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The implementation of real estate easing policy is less than expected; The default of real estate enterprises affects other market confidence
