\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 979 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) )
Event: on March 21, the company released the annual report of 2021.
The operating income increased by 23.9% and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 15.3%. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 160.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 8.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 6.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 3PCT. The decrease in net profit attributable to the parent company and the increase in revenue were mainly due to: (1) the decline in the market led to a year-on-year decrease in the company’s gross profit margin of 3.2pct to 25.5%; (2) The proportion of net investment income in revenue decreased by 2.4pct to 2.3% year-on-year. Due to its special business model, the proportion of investment income of the company has been high and has decreased year by year in recent years. We think it is more likely to remain low in the future. (3) The provision for asset impairment and credit impairment was 4.372 billion yuan, resulting in a decrease of 3.46 billion yuan in net profit attributable to the parent company. As of the end of the reporting period, the company’s contractual liabilities and accounts receivable in advance totaled 148.84 billion yuan, covering 1.02 times of the real estate carry over income in 2021. We believe that the probability of slight increase in settlement income in 2022 is greater.
Sales increased by 17.7% at the same time, and the sales scale of 7 cities entered the top three in the local area. In 2021, the company achieved a total sales amount of 326.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and a sales area of 14.645 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%; The average sales price was 223176 yuan / m2, basically the same year-on-year. The company’s sales growth rate is much higher than the average growth rate of – 1.9% of the top 40 real estate enterprises, ranking No. 7, and its sales ranked No. 7 on the Kerui list, up three places from 20 years, and entered the top 10 for the first time. The company expanded against the trend in the downward period of the industry, reflecting strong resilience. At the same time, the company’s urban deep ploughing effect is beginning to show. The company’s sales scale ranks in the top three in seven cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, Suzhou and Nanjing, and 16 cities rank in the top ten.
Investment focuses on “30 strong heart cities”. In 2021, the company added 15.59 million m3 of land storage and construction area, with a decrease of 4.1%, accounting for 106.5% of the sales area and 24.2 PCT; 8.86 million m3 of new equity construction area; The equity ratio was 57%, down 7.8pct. In 2021, the equity land price invested by the company in the designated “strong heart 30 cities” accounted for 90% of the total investment. According to the company’s monthly announcement, the proportion of new land storage and construction areas in the first, second and third lines in 2021 was 15.22% / 46.62% / 38.08%, which was + 9.3pct / – 13.5pcr / + 5.1pct compared with last year, and the land acquisition in the first tier cities and the third line of the Yangtze River Delta was strengthened. In 2021, the company obtained 9 projects, 12 mergers and acquisitions and 14 old transformation projects through industry city linkage. In addition, it plans to plan an urban renewal fund of about 80 billion yuan with state-owned enterprises in Shanghai, and the multi-channel expansion is continuing.
The income from holding properties increased by 18% at the same time, and the business of the park continued to expand. By the end of 2021, the company has 25, 21, 36 and 14 commercial, office buildings, long-term rental apartments and hotel projects respectively. It is expected that 27, 10, 19 and 15 projects under construction will be opened 25 years ago. Shuangbai plans to further promote it. The rental income of the company was 2.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1% over last year; The operating income of the hotel was 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. In terms of park business, during the reporting period, the company arranged 8 industrial new town projects, with a total cooperation area of 468 square kilometers; 25 Wanggu, yiku and smart cities in operation and under construction, with a planned construction area of 4.75 million square meters; There are 13 Treasury creation projects (7 in operation), with a total area of 47000 square meters.
The three red lines remained green, and the financing cost continued to drop to 4.48%. By the end of the year, the company’s debt structure was 177.7 billion yuan, accounting for 66.1% of the company’s healthy loan structure. In 2021, the company’s comprehensive financing cost decreased by 0.22pct to 4.48%, which was at the low level of the industry; The net debt ratio was 42.8%, the asset liability ratio excluding advances received was 61.7%, and the cash short debt ratio was 1.25, maintaining the green file.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the operating revenue of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 1909.4/2185.6/249.08 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 112 / 126.3/14.52 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding diluted EPS will be 1.41/1.59/1.83 yuan / share. 2022 dynamic pe9 6x, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the gross profit margin decreased more than expected; The development of the property held is less than expected; The speed and implementation of industrial policies are lower than expected; The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
