\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
The company released its annual report for 21 years, which achieved a revenue of 5.845 billion yuan, yoy + 59.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.177 billion yuan, yoy + 63.82%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.826 billion yuan in a single quarter, yoy + 91.39%, QoQ + 18.19%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 464 million yuan, yoy + 150.06%, QoQ + 69.18%. The performance of a single quarter reached a new high. At the same time, the company announced the profit distribution plan and distributed a cash dividend of 6.50 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 1.62%.
The trend of "sugar control" is becoming more and more intense, and the development speed of sugar substitute industry is accelerating. As the leader of global sweetener industry, the company has the largest production capacity of Acer and sucralose in the world, with strong pricing power and complete industrial chain. It is expected to accelerate its growth in the future and maintain the "buy" rating.
The company's performance continued to grow with the rise of sweet dose and price: the company's revenue performance increased double in 21 years, mainly benefiting from the rise of the volume and price of main products. Since August 21, the price of sweetener has risen sharply. In the past 21 years, the average price of the company's main product sucralose reached 273900 yuan / ton, yoy + 30%, and the average price of Acer honey was 89600 yuan / ton, yoy + 21%. The 5000 ton sucralose project of the company was completed in the first half of the year, and the production capacity continued to be released in the second half of the year, consolidating the company's industrial position in the field of sweeteners. At present, the price of sweetener is still at a high level. The average price of sucralose in Q1 in 22 years reached 463100 yuan / ton, yoy + 125%, and the average price of Acer honey reached 89600 yuan / ton, yoy + 52%. The boom is expected to continue.
The gross profit margin increased year-on-year and the cost control was reasonable: in the past 21 years, the revenue of the company's food additives sector reached 3.029 billion yuan, yoy + 59.32%, and the revenue of bulk chemicals sector reached 2.133 billion yuan, yoy + 61.68%. Due to the rise in the price of basic chemicals and the increase in the cost of food additives, the gross profit margin decreased by 2.68 PCT year-on-year to 33.57%, the gross profit margin of basic chemicals increased by 5.84 PCT year-on-year to 24.94%, and the overall gross profit margin increased by 1.11 PCT year-on-year to 28.17%. In terms of expenses, the company's expense control has achieved remarkable results, and the sales expense rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points year-on-year to 1.18%; The rate of administrative expenses decreased by 0.76 percentage points year-on-year to 2.56%; Financial expenses increased by 26 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the amount of interest expenses arising from long-term loans.
Sufficient growth momentum and obvious integration advantages: under the general trend of global sugar reduction and low saccharification, the company, as the world's leading R & D, production and sales enterprise of Acer honey and sucralose sweetener products, has laid the foundation of the company's industry position based on the continuous optimization of product cost and the continuous release of production capacity. At present, the company has a production capacity of 12000 tons of Acer honey and 8000 tons of sucralose. The production capacity of both products is the first in the world, with obvious leading advantages. In addition, the company has sufficient momentum for subsequent growth. 4500 tons of Jiale musk solution and 1000 tons of furan ammonium salt projects have been completed and produced qualified products, which is expected to contribute profits in the future; Jinwo Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to release 5000 tons of ethyl malt this year; Dingyuan sulfoxide chloride phase II project has started construction, and the main project has been completed at present; The administrative examination and approval of DMF project with an annual output of 30000 tons is being promoted. The coordinated development of the company's strong cycle basic chemical industry and weak cycle food additive industry can effectively improve the company's anti risk ability.
Profit forecast: according to our revised profit forecast, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.586/1.711 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023, yoy + 35% / 8%, equivalent to EPS of 2.83/3.05 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the A-share price is 14 / 13 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1. The price of the company's products is lower than expected; 2. The release of new production capacity is less than expected;
