\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 07 Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 267.74% year-on-year: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 41.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.90%; The gross profit margin was 20.37%, an increase of 6 percentage points; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 267.74%, a record high; The net profit margin was 7.97%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year. After full dilution, EPS is 0.96 yuan and cash dividend per share is 0.113 yuan.
Affected by power rationing and impairment provision, Q4’s net profit decreased by 92.93% year-on-year: in 2021, Q4 achieved an income of 9.546 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 7.25%, and its gross profit margin was 6.41%, a month on month decrease of 22 percentage points; In addition, the accrued asset impairment was 823 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 87 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 92.93%, and the fully diluted EPS in a single quarter was 0.03 yuan.
The output of aluminum ingots decreased slightly, the price rebounded, and the provision for asset impairment swallowed up profits: in 2021, the company produced 2.3002 million tons of raw aluminum, a year-on-year decrease of 4.41%; 1.2419 million tons of aluminum alloy and aluminum processing products, with a year-on-year increase of 24.81%; The prices of aluminum ingots and aluminum processing products increased by 35.9% and 41.6% respectively year-on-year, which is the main source of profit growth; Among them, the contribution of aluminum processing products to revenue and gross profit increased by 10.5% and 6.9% respectively, and the revenue accounted for more than half for the first time, and the upgrading of product structure took effect; The company has made provision for impairment of long-term assets of 1.984 billion yuan, accounting for 42.34% of the total profit.
Improve the industrial chain and upgrade the green aluminum and product structure to enhance the competitiveness of the company: improve the industrial chain of the company and form the advantages of integrated industrial scale, including 1.4 million tons of alumina production capacity, 3.05 million tons of green aluminum, 800000 tons of anode carbon, 1.4 million tons of aluminum alloy, 135000 tons of aluminum sector and strip and 36000 tons of aluminum foil; In 2021, the proportion of green power in the company’s production power consumption structure will reach about 85%; Promote the “alloying” strategy, upgrade the product structure, and lay out ultra-thin aluminum foil, power battery aluminum foil, aluminum welding materials, high-precision aluminum, it high-end aluminum alloy, new forged aluminum alloy, aviation aluminum alloy, 3N aluminum ingot and other high-end products. In 2021, the company’s aluminum alloy sales increased by 13% year-on-year, the Chinese market share reached about 25%, and the alloying rate reached more than 50%.
2022 is the final stage of the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. It is expected that the price of electrolytic aluminum will be tight outside and loose inside, high before and low after: the price of electrolytic aluminum will gradually rise in 2021 and fall back after November. Since 2022, affected by the changes of aluminum and natural gas pattern caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, China’s aluminum price has rebounded by about 23000 yuan / ton again. Combined with the decline of electrolytic aluminum cost in the same period, the profit space of electrolytic aluminum in Q1 increased by 37.48% year-on-year in 22 years; Considering that there are two major increases in supply in the later stage: one is the new production capacity of 2 million tons delayed due to the influence of limited power policy, and the other is that the production capacity may be restored to 2.1 million tons after the correction of carbon peak policy. We expect that the price of electrolytic aluminum in the whole year may show a trend from high to low. After the above capacity is put into operation, the electrolytic aluminum capacity will reach the ceiling, and the main driving factor of price fluctuation will return to demand.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.27 yuan, 1.81 yuan and 2.42 yuan respectively, and the return on net assets will be 23.1%, 24.8% and 24.9% respectively, maintaining the buy-b suggestion.
Risk tips: the downstream demand is less than expected, power restriction, energy control policy is more than expected, and the production of the company’s project is less than expected.
