\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 422 Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) )
Event: Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) released the 2021 annual report, and achieved a revenue of 8.254 billion yuan during the period, with a year-on-year increase of 6.95%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 508 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.12%; The basic earnings per share is 0.67 yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.7 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
The industrial and commercial segments grew steadily, and the product structure continued to be optimized. The company's revenue was 8.254 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.95%; Among them, the revenue of the pharmaceutical industry segment was 3.989 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 7.7%; The revenue of commercial segments was 4.265 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; The industrial and commercial segments grew steadily. In the continuous optimization of the product structure of the industrial segment, the proportion of injection products (mainly Shuxuetong for injection and gastrodin injection) greatly affected by the policy in the revenue of the industrial segment further decreased. Last year, the injection revenue was 850 million yuan, with a negative growth of 31.4%, and the proportion decreased to about 21.1% (33.5% in 2020). We expect that it will continue to decrease to less than 15% in the next two years, further weakening the marginal impact on the company's revenue growth; The growth rate of oral preparations accelerated, especially Xuesaitong oral dosage form series and Kun traditional Chinese medicine series. The overall growth rate was about 20%, and the proportion of oral preparations in the revenue of industrial division increased to 71.67%.
There are many bright spots of oral preparations, and the sales of out of hospital channels have increased greatly. There are many bright spots in the main varieties of oral preparations. The overall revenue of Xuesaitong oral series is close to 1 billion yuan, and the "needle re export" strategy of Xuesaitong products has achieved results. Among them, the revenue of Xuesaitong Soft capsule is 593 million yuan, accounting for 62.5% of Xuesaitong oral series, with a year-on-year increase of 28.3%. It is the main dosage form of Xuesaitong oral series. The three single products of Kunming traditional Chinese medicine Shenling jianpiwei, Shugan granule and xiangshapingwei all sold more than 100 million yuan, with sales revenue of 266 million yuan, 183 million yuan and 133 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 50%, 27.6% and 39.8% respectively, accounting for about 48% of the overall revenue of Kunming traditional Chinese medicine. The revenue of aconitin a soft capsule in the becknoton pipeline was RMB 90 million, with a year-on-year increase of 86.3%. It is expected to become a new member of the company with more than 100 million single products this year. By channel, the out of hospital revenue was 1.866 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.12%, accounting for 46.27% of the industrial segment. Among them, the out of hospital retail sales of the advantageous single product Xuesaitong Soft capsule was 190 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8%. We expect that this year will be the same as or exceed the in hospital channels.
Profit forecast and rating. We believe that the company's strategic adjustments such as "oral" and "OTC outside the hospital" have achieved initial results under the pressure of the original main varieties in recent years. It is expected that the company's revenue will be 9.054 billion yuan, 10.092 billion yuan and 11.252 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, 11.5% and 11.5% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 607 million yuan, 722 million yuan and 854 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, 18.8% and 18.4% respectively. According to the previous closing price (11.53 yuan / share) corresponding to 14.4 times of PE (2022e), it will be covered for the first time and rated as "overweight".
Tips on the impact of epidemic situation on the normal medical order of Chinese hospitals; Drug prices exceeded expectations; Product quality risk; Systemic risk.
