\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 138 China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) )
The whole year turned losses into profits, and the performance recovery is still obviously affected by the epidemic. The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 15 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year loss of 112 million yuan deducted from the net profit not attributable to the parent company, which is narrower than the loss of 395 million yuan in 2020. In the first half of 2021, the national epidemic situation was relatively stable, and the passenger flow recovery in various scenic spots supported the company's 21h1 revenue to increase by 38% year-on-year / the net profit attributable to the parent company to turn the loss. However, after July 21, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country repeatedly interrupted the pace of recovery, and the Zhejiang epidemic situation in Q4 also directly impacted Wuzhen scenic spot, resulting in the recovery of travel agencies, scenic spots, integrated marketing, hotels and other business sectors being restrained to varying degrees. The company actively took various measures to take advantage of the stable period of the epidemic to improve its performance and operating level, and continued to reduce costs and expenses. The income of other equity investment projects also increased significantly compared with 2020. In terms of non recurring profits and losses, in 2021, Wuzhen tourism, the holding subsidiary, received 143 million yuan of subsidies for Wuzhen ancient town protection and brand publicity and promotion given by Tongxiang City, with an impact on the net profit attributable to the parent company of 71 million yuan.
In 2021, the two towns were significantly affected by the epidemic, gubeishui town was more resilient, and Wuzhen had more room for recovery. According to Chen Xianghong at the Symposium of experts and entrepreneurs of China Tourism Association, Wuzhen received 3.68 million tourists in 2021, recovering to 38% in 19 years. Gubeishui town received 2.06 million tourists in 2021, recovering to about 50% in 19 years. The recovery degree of Wuzhen is weaker than that of gubeishui Town, mainly due to the high proportion of business and Exhibition demand in the tourist source structure, and its sensitivity to the epidemic is higher than that of surrounding tourists in gubeishui town. According to the Ministry of culture, tourism and tourism, during the Spring Festival in 2022, the number of Chinese tourists traveling was 251 million / - 2.0% YoY, and China's tourism revenue was 289198 billion yuan / - 3.9% YoY, which recovered to 73.9% and 56.3% respectively in 2019 according to the comparable caliber. However, the tourist reception volume of gubeishui town during the Spring Festival Golden Week increased by 13% year-on-year, and the comprehensive income increased by 25% compared with the same period before the epidemic, showing strong resilience.
The future fluctuation recovery is still the main theme, and we look forward to the incremental contribution of Puyuan scenic spot. Since March, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country has rebounded seriously, and the new local confirmed cases have reached a new high since the epidemic in Wuhan. It is expected to have an impact on the peak tourism season opened during the Qingming holiday. On the other hand, with the application of antigen detection and the release of the ninth edition of diagnosis and treatment plan, the number of tourists may still show a fluctuating recovery trend in the future. The company's new project Tongxiang Puyuan scenic spot was delayed from opening due to the impact of the epidemic. After the epidemic prevention and control situation is stable in the future, it is expected to open in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As the repeated epidemic has a great impact on the recovery of the tourism industry, we adjusted the company's earnings per share forecast from 2021 to 2023 to 0.02/0.47/0.73 yuan respectively (previously predicted to be 0.58/0.83/0.94 yuan). The valuation is based on 30 times PE of the comparable company in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 14.10 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The recurrence of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk; The risk of decline in residents' consumption power; New project progress is less than expected risk
