\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 709 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) )
Key points
Event 1: on the evening of March 21, the company released its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 11.091 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 169.26%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 314.42%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 2.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 310.55%. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 4.468 billion yuan, an increase of 213.86% year-on-year and 52.81% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 655 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4416% and a month on month decrease of 15.1%.
Event 2: on March 10, the company released the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 260% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 470%.
The price and volume of lithium battery products have risen simultaneously, and the company’s performance is good: in 2021, the company’s lithium-ion battery materials business achieved a significant increase in sales and profits. In 2021, the company’s lithium battery materials business revenue reached 9.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 265.92%. From January to February 2022, the company’s main products still maintained prosperous production and sales, the new production capacity climbed smoothly, and the self-production rate of main raw materials increased steadily. In 2021, the company delivered more than 144000 tons of electrolyte, with a year-on-year increase of more than 97.3%. The price of electrolyte increased at a high level from 2021 to February 2022. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average market price of electrolyte in 2021 was as high as 82300 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 189.16%. In 2021, the average price of Q4 rose to 113500 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 180.09% and a month on month increase of 20.48%. From January to February 2022, the average price further rose to 120000 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 181.90% and a month on month increase of 2.06%. The increase of electrolyte volume and price has brought significant performance increment to the company. The company is expected to maintain a strong momentum of development in the upper reaches and the demand for new materials in the short term, and the supply of lithium products in the lower reaches is expected to remain high due to the combination of old energy and new materials.
The layout of lithium battery integrated industrial chain continues to advance, and the leading position is stable: the industrial chain layout of the company’s lithium battery electrolyte, solute liquid hexafluoride, additives and other core raw materials of lithium battery electrolyte is complete, the integration builds cost barriers, and the capacity scale is in the leading position in the industry. Since 2021, the company has planned a production capacity of 700000 T / a electrolyte. At present, the company has a fixed hexafluoride production capacity of 32000 tons / year, and the planned and under construction liquid hexafluoride production capacity of 440000 tons / year, which will be gradually put into operation in the next two years. In terms of additives, the company’s existing lifsi production capacity is 2300 tons / year, with an annual output of 4000 tons. At present, the lifsi unit has reached a stable production state, and the production capacity is planned to exceed 60000 tons in the next three years. The company also has a VC production capacity of 1000 tons / year in Zhejiang Tianshuo, and plans to build a VC production capacity of 20000 tons / year.
The capacity of iron phosphate expands rapidly and is expected to become a new performance growth point of the company. With the high prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry and its excellent characteristics of high safety and low cost, lithium iron phosphate power battery has regained the favor of the market. With the gradual increase of installed capacity, the demand for lithium iron phosphate increases rapidly, which is transmitted to its core production raw material iron phosphate. The company pays close attention to this industry trend. It has a capacity layout of 30000 T / a battery grade iron phosphate and plans to build a capacity of 300000 t / a iron phosphate. It has completed the preliminary filing / environmental assessment and other relevant safety and environment work, and the phase I capacity of 100000 t / a is under construction. The company has a capacity of 5000t / a lithium iron phosphate and an annual output of 25000t lithium iron phosphate cathode material. The project is under construction. The substantial expansion of iron phosphate production capacity not only ensures the supply of raw materials and further improves the industrial chain layout of cathode materials, but also is expected to contribute better performance increment to the company.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the price of the company’s main products continued to rise, contributing to the company’s performance. Therefore, we raised the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 46.30 (up 14.8%) / 54.64 (up 2.9%) / 6.307 billion yuan respectively. As a leading enterprise in the electrolyte industry, the company has significant advantages in capacity planning and industrial chain layout, and maintains the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tip: the risk of capacity construction, the risk of product price decline, and the risk that the downstream demand is less than expected.
