Satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In the past 21 years, the company achieved an operating revenue of 28.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 165%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 262%; Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 8.54 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 165%, a month on month increase of – 7.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 131%, a month on month increase of – 17.8%.
Comments:
The first phase of C2 was put into operation to boost the growth of sales volume, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price promoted the rise of annual performance: in 2021, the average prices of propane, propylene, polypropylene (T30S), acrylic acid and butyl acrylate in China were 4946 yuan / ton, 7756 yuan / ton, 8756 yuan / ton, 11958 yuan / ton and 16266 yuan / ton respectively, with the same ratio of + 34%, + 17%, + 8%, + 69% and + 94% respectively; The price differences of PDH, polypropylene (T30S), acrylic acid and butyl acrylate were 1611 yuan / ton, 816 yuan / ton, 5777 yuan / ton and 1664 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 355 yuan / ton, – 420 yuan / ton, + 3634 yuan / ton and + 1193 yuan / ton respectively. In Q4 of the 21st year, the average prices of propane, propylene, polypropylene (T30S), acrylic acid and butyl acrylate in China were 6059 yuan / ton, 7857 yuan / ton, 8699 yuan / ton, 15533 yuan / ton and 15561 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 62%, + 10%, + 1%, + 91% and + 54% respectively; The price differences of PDH, polypropylene (T30S), acrylic acid and butyl acrylate were 519 yuan / ton, 675 yuan / ton, 8436 yuan / ton and 854 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 1845 yuan / ton, – 551 yuan / ton, + 5915 yuan / ton and + 186 yuan / ton respectively. In 2021, the volume and price of the company’s main products increased simultaneously, and the price difference between acrylic acid and butyl acrylate increased significantly year-on-year, which promoted the company’s performance to achieve high growth in 21 years. With the continuous promotion of C2 phase II and green new material projects, the release of future profits can be expected.
The second phase of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) c2 project has been pushed forward smoothly, and the relay has driven the growth of performance: the units of the first phase of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) c2 project invested and constructed by the company have operated well since it was put into operation on May 20, 2021. At present, the second phase of the project, including 1.25 million T / a ethane cracking unit, 400000 T / a polyethylene unit, 730000 T / a ethylene oxide unit and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a styrene unit, has completed the installation of main equipment, and is expected to be put into trial production in 2022. The continuous expansion of C2 industrial chain layout will further improve the profitability of the company.
Under the background of carbon neutralization, the green low-carbon new material project will help the future growth: the first phase of the company’s green new material industrial park project, which includes 100000 t / a ethanolamine, 400000 T / a polystyrene, 150000 T / a battery grade carbonate and other devices, is planned to be completed and put into trial production in the second half of 2022. Ethanolamine and carbonate will expand the downstream product matrix of ethylene oxide, and use the emission reaction in the production process of ethylene oxide to prepare carbonate. It is estimated that about 0.6 tons of carbon dioxide can be consumed per ton of carbonate. In the context of carbon neutrality, the establishment of circular economy strategy and the realization of carbon capture goal will provide favorable conditions for the sustainable development of the company.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we maintain the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2023 and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company’s net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.798 billion yuan / 10.074 billion yuan / 11.535 billion yuan respectively, equivalent to EPS of 5.11 yuan / 5.86 yuan / 6.71 yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the launch progress of new capacity is less than expected, and the product price difference is at risk of falling.
