\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
Summary of this issue:
The incidence rate of cervical cancer is increasing year by year, and the penetration of HPV vaccine is expected to be promoted under the policy.
According to the literature of PMC and ScienceDirect, the incidence rate of cervical cancer in China has been increasing in recent years, from the 11.98/10 population in 2010 to 17.69/10 in 2016. In 2020, who officially launched the “global strategy for accelerating the elimination of cervical cancer”. In 2021, the National Health Commission plans to start pilot work in 15 cities to promote the vaccination of cervical cancer vaccine. From 2017 to 2021, the total number of HPV vaccine batches issued in China was about 146, 713, 1087, 1544 and 32.49 million respectively; According to the OECD database, the female population aged 9-45 in China was about 322 million in 2021. According to the rough calculation of the three shot vaccination procedure, the cumulative penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China in 2021 was 6.99%. With the improvement of residents’ awareness of HPV vaccine and the promotion of national policies, the penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China is expected to further increase, which is expected to reach 30%, and there is still room for improvement several times.
The production and sales of bivalent HPV vaccine increased at the same time, and it is expected to double in 2022
At present, there is a strong demand for HPV vaccine in China, but the supply of MSD to China is limited, so the supply of four / nine valent vaccine products is insufficient. Compared with the four / nine valent vaccine products, the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine has obvious price advantages. The pre potting product line was approved in April 2021 and the production capacity of vials was enlarged in July, with a total production capacity of 30 million vials / year. With the potential of the company’s existing production line and the construction of new production line planned, bivalent HPV vaccine products can achieve the state of increasing production and marketing at the same time; With the promotion of preferential policies of local governments and the improvement of residents’ recognition of bivalent HPV vaccine, the products are expected to gradually develop from third and fourth tier cities to first and second tier cities, thus driving the continuous expansion of the overall market space. In 2021, the company sold more than 10 million divalent HPV vaccines. We expect the sales volume to reach 20 million in 2022, which is expected to double.
The project under research is progressing smoothly and is expected to become the first domestic nine price HPV vaccine enterprise
In the field of vaccines, the company has rich R & D pipelines and many products are progressing smoothly. Among them, the main clinical trial of nine valent HPV vaccine has completed the enrollment and vaccination, and is expected to be approved for listing at the end of 2024 or early 2025, becoming the first domestic nine valent HPV vaccine enterprise; The traditional lyophilized live attenuated varicella vaccine has obtained the phase III clinical trial research report, and the new lyophilized live attenuated varicella vaccine (vzv-7d) is carrying out the phase IIB clinical trial; Nasal spray of influenza virus vector covid-19 pneumonia vaccine has obtained the approval of phase III clinical trial in South Africa; The 20 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has been approved for clinical trials. The company’s research projects are progressing smoothly and will gradually enter the harvest period. After the products are listed, it is expected to significantly increase the company’s performance.
There are many kinds of in vitro diagnostic products, and reagents and instruments are developed simultaneously
In the field of in vitro diagnosis, the company has product lines such as enzyme-linked immunodiagnostic reagent, colloidal gold rapid diagnostic reagent and chemiluminescence diagnostic reagent, and has launched a new generation of automatic tubular chemiluminescence immunoanalyzer wan200 +. In addition, the company has a variety of covid-19 virus related diagnostic kits, among which covid-19 virus antigen detection kit (colloidal gold method) obtained the Chinese medical device registration certificate on March 14, 2022. The scale of the global and Chinese IVD market has shown a good growth trend in recent years. Under the environment of strong demand in the downstream market and continuous iterative upgrading of technology, the company is expected to realize the steady development of IVD business.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 9.621 billion, 13.580 billion and 17.612 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 67.3%, 41.1% and 29.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.670 billion yuan, 5.306 billion yuan and 6.944 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 81.5%, 44.6% and 30.9%, corresponding to EPS of 6.05, 8.74 and 11.44 yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, and PE of 46, 32 and 24 times respectively.
Risk factors: the risk that the product batch issuance is less than expected, the risk that the R & D progress is less than expected, covid-19 epidemic and other uncertain risks.
