At present, we recommend three main lines: (1) the first quarterly report is expected to exceed the expected varieties of the market, and the upstream is preferred: Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc(603889) , Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) ; (2) Growth varieties less affected by economic slowdown: Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) ; (3) The bottom and downward space of the valuation is limited: Jinhong Fashion Group Co.Ltd(603518) , Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) .
Keepvsploton: high customer acquisition costs affect profitability
This week, we analyzed the similarities and differences between peloton and keep, the leading interactive fitness enterprise, from the dimensions of profit model, profitability and valuation. 1) In 2021, the online fitness subscription penetration rate in China was 4.8%, while that in the United States was 10.7%. The teaching cost of Chinese consumers was higher. 2) Peloton fitness equipment started, relying on hardware to launch intelligent auxiliary software system; Keep software app started by using free app to accumulate a large number of user base, and then realize flow realization (sales of products, service subscriptions, advertising). 3) Peloton made a short profit in the first half of fiscal year 2021 and lost again in the second half of the year. Keep has not yet made a profit, mainly due to the high marketing expenses. Our analysis is that firstly, the company actively increased consumer education investment in order to seize the market, and secondly, the flow dividend peaked and the drainage cost was high. 4) From the perspective of valuation, the valuation of pelotonps fluctuates between 1.6-21.6x.
Market review:
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.77%, the gem index rose by 1.81%, the SW textile and garment sector fell by 2.19%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.42pct and the gem index by 4.00pct, of which the SW textile manufacturing fell by 2.44% and the SW clothing home textile fell by 2.07%. At present, the PE of SW textile and garment industry is 13.69. This week, outdoor and sports performed best, with an increase of 6.12%; Mother and child children performed the worst, with a decrease of 7.81%.
Market data tracking: China’s cotton price index fell 0.1% this week
As of March 18, China’s cotton 328 index was 21562 yuan / ton, down 0.1% this week. As of March 18, China’s imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 21562 yuan / ton, up 3.7% this week. As of March 17, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 21217 yuan / ton, up 1.77% this week. On the whole, the price difference of cotton inside and outside this week was 1121 yuan / ton, which was 793 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of last week.
As of March 10, the Australian Wool Exchange East market composite index was 1413 Australian cents / kg, equivalent to 666456 yuan / ton (a $1 = 4.7166 yuan), down 0.49% from 1420 Australian cents / kg on March 3.
From January to February 2022, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles from January to February was 238.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. From January to February, the national online retail sales reached 1955.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 163711 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3%, accounting for 22.0% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.
According to ecdataway data, in February 2022, China’s garment industry achieved online sales of 27.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.46%, and the growth rate increased by 1.62pct compared with that in January.
According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in February 2022, the export amount of clothing and clothing accessories was US $9.655 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and the export amount of textile yarn, fabric and products was US $8.134 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%.
From January to February 2022, the completed housing area in China decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 11.71 PCT compared with December 2021.
Risk tips
Second outbreak of the epidemic; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
