Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: the closing price of QinGang port rose sharply this week (3.11-3.18), closing at 1520 yuan / ton on the 18th daily, with a weekly increase of – 8.65% Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) 5500 Shanxi Youhun annual price center increased by 8.31% over last year. The port inventory began to be replenished, and the power plant inventory continued to be destocked. Due to accidental cooling, the heating period in many places was delayed by about a week. In the future, with the gradual warming of the weather, thermal coal will enter the off-season.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: the marginal demand improved this week, and the price of coking coal was flat. The port’s main coking coal 18 daily closed at 3350 yuan / ton, the price of imported coking coal rose 8.52% weekly, and the import price difference narrowed. Injection coal prices rose 5.13% during the week. On the demand side, coke prices were flat during the week, with coke oven operating rate of 76.9%, an increase of 2.30 percentage points over last week. Steel prices fell by 0.02% this week, and the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 79.12%, down 26.44 percentage points from last week. The inventory of coking coal in each link is removed, and the inventory of injected coal and coke is slightly replenished.
The special meeting of the State Council on the improvement of the equity development index of the State Council lost 48.3% this week, and the risk of the coal industry was stable. At present, the relationship between supply and demand is still tight, and the release rate of production capacity is slow. On March 17, according to the information of the coal industry, the national development and Reform Commission held a special meeting on the signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022. The meeting mainly discussed the current problems in the performance of the long-term association, the arrangement of verification work and the focus of work in the next step. It is expected that ensuring supply and price stability and strengthening the performance of the long-term association are still the general direction. Affected by the policy, the price of thermal coal fell this week and will enter the off-season in the future. Pay attention to the release speed of supply and the progress of replenishment in the off-season; The price of metallurgical coal is stable as a whole. Under the background of steady growth, pay attention to the marginal change of new construction data. Prices rose continuously in the first quarter, and the quarterly report may exceed expectations. Pay attention to the financial report in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the impact of the Yongmei incident has been basically eliminated. At this stage, the interest margin is relatively low, but the quantile of low-grade interest margin is differentiated from that of medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it may be the best policy to choose the right opportunity. For exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: policy risk; Strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
