Key investment points
Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked 10th, and SW passenger car PE was in the historical quantile of 91%. SW auto fell 0.6%, outperforming the market by 0.7pct. Except for SW passenger cars, SW auto parts, SW commercial trucks, SW commercial buses and SW automobile services all showed a decline. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 10th this week, ranking at the top. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 91% / 90% quantile respectively, with the quantile of + 1PCT / 0pct compared with last week; PE / Pb of SW parts are at the historical 62% / 48% quantile respectively, with the quantile of + 1PCT / – 4pct compared with last week. Horizontal comparison, passenger car sector valuation in PE is higher than white appliances than Baijiu, PB is lower than white household appliances and Baijiu; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 202203.12 ~ 202203.19, the same below. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Boom tracking: the shortage of chips continued to improve, and retail rose month on month; Enterprise & Channel replenishment. According to the passenger Federation, from March 7 to 13, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 45745, with a year-on-year increase of + 3% and a month on month increase of + 75%; In the first two weeks of March, the cumulative average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 41767, with a year-on-year increase of – 4% and a month on month increase of + 60%; From March 7 to 13, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 50987, with a year-on-year increase of – 3% and a month on month increase of + 85%; In the first two weeks of March, the cumulative average daily wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 45842, with a year-on-year increase of – 11% and a month on month increase of + 66%. The output of narrow passenger cars in February was 1.492 million, up + 31.4% year-on-year and – 27.0% month on month; The wholesale sales volume was 1.455 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.9% and a month on month increase of – 32.6%.; In February, there were 1115500 strong traffic insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 10.76% / – 48.83% respectively. Inventory: in February, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was + 37000, and the channel inventory was + 193000.
Key focus: the price of raw materials decreased slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars this week (03.14-03.18) was – 2.57% month on month (03.07-03.11), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were – 2.43% / – 2.16% / – 5.38% / – 3.75% / – 2.27% month on month (MOM) respectively.
Investment suggestion: the correction of the automobile sector has been sufficient, and we are firmly optimistic about the automobile investment opportunities in 2022. It is recommended to over match! 1) Chip Q2 is expected to continue to alleviate + policy underpinning economy + release of rigid demand. China’s passenger vehicle traffic compulsory insurance data is expected to continue to be positive in Q2 year-on-year, and the positive range of Q3 continues to increase. 2) The demand brought about by the price increase of new energy vehicles has been fully responded by the market, and Q2 is expected to resume orders and delivery. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ideal car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Xiaopeng Car + Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. For the recommendation of the sector of parts and components for the sector recommendation of [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002fora + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
