This week’s market:
The social services (Shenwan) sector index rose or fell by + 0.85% in the week, ranking 4 / 31 of the rise and fall of Shenwan industry.
Shanghai Stock Index (- 1.77%), Shenzhen Component Index (- 0.95%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 0.94%) and gem index (+ 1.81%).
Ranking of sub industries: SW tourism and scenic spots (+ 5.35%), SW hotel catering (+ 2.92%), SW sports II (+ 1.79%), SW Education (- 0.71%), SW professional services (- 2.06%).
Top five gainers in social service industry: Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (+ 35.11%), Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) (+ 20.48%), Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) (+ 14.67%), Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) (+ 13.26%), Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) (+ 11.46%);
Top five declines in social service industry: Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) (- 14.04%), Beijing Dataway Horizon Co.Ltd(301169) (- 12.82%), real estate testing (- 7.08%), Suzhou Electrical Apparatus Science Academy Co.Ltd(300215) (- 5.93%), ST Donghai B (- 5.88%).
Core view:
At present, the epidemic prevention and control measures distributed in many places are accurate and rapid, and are expected to be effectively controlled within two months. It is close to the peak tourist seasons of Qingming, may day and summer. On the premise that the epidemic is controllable, offline consumer demand for catering, tourism and tax exemption is expected to be released intensively and rapidly, and the expected recovery of the industry is expected to increase.
Investment suggestion: the offline travel industry hit hard by the epidemic has received a great deal of attention. A number of favorable policies have fundamentally helped enterprises solve difficulties, the supply side has been structurally cleared, and the demand side has been suppressed by the scattered points of the epidemic in the short term. Approaching the peak tourist season of Qingming and may day, with the stability of epidemic prevention and control, the pace of industry recovery is expected to accelerate, which is good for the leading enterprises of the subdivided track. Tourism sector: the recovery of China’s tourism industry will focus on short-distance, customized and leisure tourism, and look forward to high-quality scenic spots and enterprises with perfect tourism industry chain; Hotel sector: the epidemic disturbs short-term performance, leading hotels expand against the trend, continue to open stores in large quantities, constantly consolidate their internal strength, and highlight the head effect. Once the travel demand is released, it will directly benefit from the recovery of the industry, the cycle reversal is in sight, and the performance elasticity is expected; Catering sector: the epidemic has brought structural subversion to the traditional catering industry, and is optimistic about catering enterprises with innovative business forms and excellent single store model that meet the changing needs of the current audience; Tax free sector: in the short term, affected by the epidemic, in the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the potential of Hainan as an international tourism consumption city, which is also conducive to promoting China to form a new development pattern with China’s big cycle as the main body and China’s international double cycle promoting each other.
Risk warning: global epidemic control; Regulation of national policies; Industry regulatory risks; The downward pressure on the economy has increased.
