Summary of this issue:
Zhou’s view: 1) home furnishing: the zero data of real estate and furniture society from January to February 2022 released this week is weak as a whole, the overall valuation of home furnishing sector is callback, and the leader enters the value layout range. In the context of recent outbreaks in many places across the country, leading enterprises have actively responded to 315 activities through early customer storage and package marketing. It is expected that the overall order receiving situation is good. It is suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (22-year pe22x), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (22-year pe19x), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (22-year pe12x), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (22-year pe13x) and Minhua Holdings (22-year pe12x). 2) Papermaking: the price increase letter of cultural paper in April is sent again. The planned price increase range is 300 yuan / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (pe9x in 22 years). It is suggested to pay attention to Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) (pe10x in 22 years) which has successfully raised the price recently. 3) Packaging and printing & new type of tobacco: with the release of the national standard of e-cigarette (second draft for comments), the status of the national standard on the national standard information public service platform has been updated to “being approved” by the end of this week. Considering that it will take about three months from the subsequent submission for approval to the authorized release, and in line with the e-cigarette management measures to be implemented on May 1, it is expected that the specification of China’s e-cigarette industry will be refined soon, which will benefit the industry leader in the long term, It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (pe16x in 22 years). The paper packaging sector is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) (pe14x in 22 years), with obvious valuation advantages. 4) Household personal consumption: continue to be optimistic about Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) (22-year pe26x). The barriers of traditional core business channels are stable, the new business model is gradually mature, and the profitability is expected to gradually rise in the future.
The light industry manufacturing sector performed slightly worse than the market this week (March 14-march 18, 2022). This week, the light industry manufacturing industry index fell 2.3%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.9%. The overall performance was inferior to the market. In the light industry manufacturing segment, the packaging and printing industry index was – 1.1%, the entertainment industry index was – 2.1%, the household goods industry index was – 2.3%, and the paper industry index was – 3.6%.
Household: the completion of real estate fell, the decline in sales narrowed, the furniture society was weak, and the sea freight of raw materials decreased slightly this week. In terms of real estate, the completed residential area was – 9.6% year-on-year from January to February of 22 years, and the growth rate was 10.4pct lower than that in December of 21 years. The decline of national residential sales area narrowed, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 13.8% from January to February, and the growth rate increased by 5.6pct compared with December 21. The sales growth of the furniture industry slowed down month on month. From January to February of 22, the retail sales of furniture of Enterprises above designated size decreased by – 6.0% year-on-year, 2.9pct slower than that in December of 21. The sales volume of building materials and home stores in February of 22 years was + 86.6% year-on-year, an increase of 55.0 PCT compared with that in January. In the past week as of March 18, 2022, in terms of chemical raw materials, the market prices of TDI, MDI and polyether were – 0.2%, – 4.3% and – 7.6% respectively compared with last week. In terms of hardware raw materials, copper prices were – 0.9% month on month (MOM) last week. The high level of sea freight dropped slightly. This week, CCFI: the sea freight of the US west route was – 3.8% higher than that of last week.
Papermaking: this week, the prices of double offset paper and coated paper increased slightly, and the futures pulp price decreased slightly. The past week as of March 19, 2022: the price of double adhesive tape, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 7000 yuan / ton (up 200 yuan / ton), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6700 yuan / ton (unchanged); Price of white cardboard, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6410 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) 6520 yuan / ton (unchanged); Coated paper price, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6800 yuan / ton (up 200 yuan / ton), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6500 yuan / ton (unchanged). Dongguan Jiulong Dilong Dongguan Jiulong corrugated paper 4390 yuan / ton (unchanged), kraft carton board 4730 yuan / ton (unchanged). In terms of cost, as of March 12, 2022, the purchase price of Tianjin Jiulong waste yellow paperboard was 2190 yuan / ton (unchanged), the price of Brazilian goldfish broad-leaved pulp was 680 US dollars / ton (unchanged), the price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp was 890 US dollars / ton (unchanged), and the price of pulp futures was 6826 yuan / ton, a month on week – 5.48%.
Packaging: the price of tinsector increased slightly and the price of aluminum decreased slightly. As of March 19, 2022, this week’s tinsector Tianjin Furen spcc0 The price of 18 900 tinsector coil is 8450 yuan / ton (up 40 yuan / ton), and the price of A00 aluminum is 21998 yuan / ton (down 402 yuan / ton), which decreases slightly.
Risk factors: the risk of decline in real estate sales and the risk of sharp rise in raw material costs.
