Event: from January to February, the business volume of national express service enterprises totaled 15.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; Business income totaled 157.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. Among them, in February, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 6.91 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 49.7%; Business income reached 65.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%.
(2) four express delivery companies released the operating data in February (Yuantong and Shentong excluded the impact of the change of rookie settlement caliber):
[ S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ] in February, the company’s express logistics business revenue was 9.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.36%; The business volume reached 638 million tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 8.33%; The single ticket revenue of express logistics business was 15.44 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%.
[ Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ] in February, the company’s express service revenue was 2.85 billion yuan, an increase of 88.12% year-on-year; Completed business volume of 1.216 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 73.47%; The single ticket income of express service was 2.34 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.33%.
[ Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ] in February, the company’s express product revenue was 2.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.05%; The business volume was 967 million tickets, an increase of 82.83% year-on-year; The single ticket income of express products was 2.60 yuan, basically the same year-on-year.
[ Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) ] in February, the company’s express service revenue was 1.869 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.29%; The business volume reached 723 million tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 85.59%; The single ticket income of express service was 2.44 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.29%.
From the perspective of business volume growth, the growth rate of Tongda parts from January to February exceeded expectations, and SF showed a low growth rate due to the impact of product structure adjustment. Affected by the wrong time of the Spring Festival, the volume growth of the express industry in January and February was low before and high after. The total volume growth of the express industry from January to February was 19.6%, and the demand was slightly higher than expected; From January to February, the business volume growth rates of listed express companies were: Yunda + 30.7% (February + 73.5%), Yuantong + 27.8% (February + 82.8%), Shentong + 38.9% (February + 85.6%), Shunfeng + 2.0% (February – 8.3%). (1) The growth rate of Tongda is ahead of the market from January to February. In addition to the weak demand of e-commerce (the online retail volume of physical goods from January to February was + 12.3% year-on-year), the leading enterprises or enjoy the volume overflow brought by the optimization of industry structure; The difference in the growth rate of each unit is mainly due to the difference of competitive strategy and base effect. (2) Shunfeng’s overall volume grew negatively in February, with a growth rate of 2.0% from January to February. Behind our low growth rate, we believe that it is mainly related to the company’s operation adjustment. The company actively optimizes the product structure and reduces the volume of low gross profit products. For example, a large number of preferential products have been withdrawn, which has a large base impact in the same period last year, and the epidemic situation in some regions also has an impact. We expect that core express delivery will continue to grow from January to February, and the profit margin will remain at an excellent level.
From the perspective of year-on-year growth, the price of Tongfeng continued to increase, and the price of Shunda continued to increase year-on-year in February. In February, the industry price was – 14.8% year-on-year, affected by the high base in the same period last year; Compared with – 9.1%, we think it is mainly related to the decline of average weight of packages and the gradual cancellation of temporary price increases during the Spring Festival. Prices of express delivery enterprises in February: SF + 5.46% year-on-year and – 11.62% month on month (down 2.03 yuan); Yuantong was flat year-on-year, with a month on month ratio of -0.76% (a slight decrease of 0.02 yuan); Yunda was + 8.33% year on year and – 7.51% month on month (down 0.19 yuan); Shentong was – 10.29% year-on-year and + 0.41% month on month (slightly up 0.01 yuan). From January to February, the unit prices of express companies were: SF + 5.04%, Yunda + 10.8%, Yuantong + 7.1%, Shentong – 5.6%. (1) In February, the prices of Yuantong and Shentong were stable month on month, and Yunda fell somewhat. According to our terminal research, the prices of the industry are mainly stable, and the competition among various companies is mild; From January to February, the prices of Yuantong and Yunda achieved positive year-on-year growth, which was better than the average level of the industry. (2) Shunfeng’s price increased positively year-on-year in January and February, indicating that the product structure continued to be optimized, and the month on month decline of unit price in February was mainly due to the decline of average weight of products and other factors. Looking forward to 2022, the annual price probability of the industry will remain stable, with considerable year-on-year improvement.
From the main “grain producing areas”, the growth rate of Yiwu and Guangzhou in February exceeded the industry average, the unit price in Yiwu fell seasonally, and the unit price in Guangzhou was stable month on month. Affected by the high peak staggering of the Spring Festival, the volume and price of grain production areas fluctuated greatly in February. (1) Yiwu: volume growth in February + 59.4%; The unit price was 3.1 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.9% (- 0.06 yuan) and a month on month increase of – 9.2% (- 0.31 yuan). (2) Guangzhou: volume growth in February + 73.2%; The unit price was 7.49 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 22.3% (- 2.15 yuan) and a month on month increase of + 0.04%. (3) Shenzhen: volume growth in February + 39.8%; The unit price was 8.7 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 31.2% (- 3.93 yuan) and a month on month increase of – 19.4% (- 2.1 yuan). (4) Jieyang: volume growth in February + 79.2%; The unit price was 3.8 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 26.2% (- 1.35 yuan) and a month on month increase of – 8.9% (- 0.37 yuan). In February, Yiwu express delivery prices fell seasonally, and gradually withdrew due to the temporary price rise in the peak season of the Spring Festival. On the whole, Zhejiang has implemented the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry since March 1. The industry has implemented the price self-discipline initiative and is optimistic that Zhejiang will build a national model for express supervision. The price will continue to be stable and strong, and is even expected to be further repaired to improve the industry ecology; The overall performance of volume and price in South China is good, and the growth rate of parts volume is high, mainly due to the comparative advantage of price.
In terms of market share, the share of each company fluctuated in February, which was mainly affected by differences in competitive strategy and customer structure. In February, the business volume market shares of the four express delivery companies were: SF 9.23% (mom-2.04pts), Yunda 17.60% (mom + 0.36pts), Yuantong 13.99% (mom-1.16ts) and Shentong 10.46% (mom-0.81pts). The decline in the share of Shunfeng city is mainly affected by the strong demand before the festival in January and the decline in demand after the festival. Yunda’s share rose month on month, while Yuantong’s and Shentong’s share fell month on month. We believe that it is mainly due to the differentiation of competitive strategies.
Investment suggestion: we recommend a shares: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : firmly promote high-quality development, continuously improve service and refined management, and have greater performance flexibility with the upward movement of price center Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : the company’s share keeps up with the leading Zhongtong, the unit price stabilizes and enjoys the performance repair dividend. US stocks are optimistic about Zhongtong express: its share remains the first in the industry, its management level lags behind its peers, which is reflected in its business advantages, and its profitability continues to lead its peers. At the same time, we recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) : short-term operation adjustment in place, superposition of strict cost control, continuous improvement of the company’s performance, medium and long-term benefit timeliness, international and other diversified business layout, with growth and high configuration value.
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected; Price competition in the industry has intensified.
