Express delivery: from January to February, the quantity of Tongda series parts increased rapidly and the price was stable, and the growth rate of parts during SF operation adjustment period was under pressure; The performance of Zhongtong 21q4 meets expectations; Continue to be optimistic about the flexibility of Tongda express performance and the medium and long-term layout value of SF.
1) Tongda enterprises saw a bright growth in parts volume from January to February, and the price remained stable: from January to February, Tongda increased by + 30.7%, Yuantong + 27.8%, Shentong + 39.0%, exceeding the industry by 19.6%. In addition to the weak demand of e-commerce (online retail sales of physical goods from January to February + 12.3% year-on-year), leading enterprises or enjoying the part volume overflow caused by the optimization of industry structure. In February, the price of Tongda Department: Yuantong was flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.02 yuan month on month; Yunda was + 8.33% year on year and – 7.51% month on month (down 0.19 yuan); Shentong was -10.29% year-on-year, with a slight increase of 0.01 yuan month on month. The prices of Yuantong and Shentong are stable month on month, and Yunda has dropped. According to our terminal research, the prices of the industry are mainly stable, and the competition is mild. From January to February, the prices of Yuantong and Yunda achieved positive year-on-year growth, which was better than the average level of the industry.
2) during the period of operation adjustment, SF express logistics business volume increased by + 2.0% year-on-year, of which – 8.3% year-on-year decreased in February, mainly due to the peak staggering of the Spring Festival and the company’s active optimization of product structure since the second half of 2021 to reduce the number of low gross profit products. The single ticket revenue from January to February was + 5.0% year-on-year, of which + 5.5% year-on-year in February, indicating the continuous optimization of product structure. We believe that the company’s basic market is stable and the operation adjustment is in place. Under the background of practicing healthy operation, there is a large room for profit improvement; In addition, the operation of Ezhou airport and the merger and acquisition of Kerry Logistics have brought new growth points, and the company has ushered in the medium and long-term layout time point.
3) the performance of Zhongtong 21q4 is in line with expectations: the business volume of Zhongtong 2021q4 is 6.343 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 17.25%, the single ticket income of Q4 express business is – 1.30% year-on-year, and the impact of price war competition is significantly weakened. The cost side continued to be optimized, and the Q4 single ticket cost was – 2.93% year-on-year, of which the single ticket trunk transportation cost was – 3.33% year-on-year. In terms of profit, the company achieved adjusted net profit of 1.745 billion yuan in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of + 35.13%, and adjusted net profit of 0.28 yuan for single ticket, a year-on-year increase of + 15.25%. In 2022, the industry price is stable and optimistic about the company’s profit and continuous repair.
Tongda Department has a bright performance in volume and price from January to February, and is optimistic about the industry prospect and leading competitiveness. SF’s short-term operation is under pressure and is optimistic about the value of medium and long-term layout. The policy promotes franchised express delivery to curb irrational competition and emphasize high-quality development. The price center of Tongda express delivery moves upward. From January to February, the quantity and price performance of head enterprises are bright. It is expected that the profits of head enterprises will continue to improve in the future; On the supply side, after Jitu acquired Baishi, it once again strengthened the competition pattern of the industry head; From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is highly deterministic, and service has become a new competitive factor. After the pattern is stable, the industry leaders will fully benefit from the increase of share and profit; The adjustment of short-term operation is in place, the superposition of strict cost control, the continuous improvement of the company’s performance, the timeliness of medium and long-term benefits, international and other diversified business layout, with growth and high allocation value. A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and American stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: the new covid-19 diagnosis and treatment plan was announced, and the case admission and isolation management were more scientific; The number of new confirmed cases in Hong Kong has dropped significantly, the mainland epidemic has not yet ushered in an inflection point, and the number of civil aviation flights has continued to decline; Pay attention to the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the industry after the epidemic situation is alleviated.
1) the new version of the COVID-19 virus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan announced that the cases were treated and the isolation management was more scientific: in March 15, 2022, the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth) was published, which suggested that isolation management and treatment sites should be established according to the disease condition and centralized isolation management should be carried out for light cases. Adjust the release of isolation management and discharge standards, and speed up the release of isolation and discharge process of patients; The 14 day isolation management and health status monitoring were modified to 7-day home health monitoring. The new scheme shortens the isolation time, reduces unnecessary isolation while ensuring dynamic clearing, promotes the normal operation of economic life, releases the positive signal of scientific epidemic prevention, and is optimistic about the recovery of aviation demand.
2) the number of new cases in Hong Kong has decreased significantly, the mainland epidemic has not yet ushered in an inflection point, and the implementation of civil aviation passenger flights has continued to decline: on March 4, the number of new confirmed cases in Hong Kong reached a peak of 31368, and then showed a downward trend as a whole. On March 18, 1860 new confirmed cases fell significantly. The epidemic situation in the mainland continued to develop in the past week. According to the flight steward data, a total of 35174 flights were carried out by civil aviation passenger flights in the past week (3.12-03.18), with a chain ratio of – 30.1% and a year-on-year ratio of – 59.9%. Among them, China Southern Airlines / China Eastern Airlines / Air China (excluding subsidiaries) carried out 6558 / 4720 / 2912 flights, with a month on month ratio of – 17.0% / – 18.6% / – 16.1%, a month on month ratio of – 26.4% / – 42.6% / – 27.5%, compared with – 53.7% / – 67.4% / – 67.8% in 2019 and – 55.3% / – 64.9% / – 66.0% in 2021
On the demand side, it is impacted by the epidemic in the short term. With the promotion of acupuncture and specific drugs and the promotion of scientific epidemic prevention, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, Boeing Airbus orders accumulate and it will take time for production capacity to recover. Even if 737max go around does not change the low growth rate of transport capacity, the low growth rate of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation ticket prices has opened up the space for price elasticity. It is expected to usher in an upward inflection point in the aviation supply and demand cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , with high proportion of Chinese lines and high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Pay attention to regional airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: the current round of epidemic continues to develop, and the number of Airport Flights in the past week has been disturbed by the epidemic and dropped to the same level in 2020: according to the flight steward data, in the past week (3.12-03.18), the domestic flights of capital / Hongqiao / Baiyun / Bao’an / Pudong were 1930 / 1418 / 4204 / 864 / 1216, with a month on month ratio of – 32.7% / – 54.2% / – 25.3% / – 57.1% / – 59.3%, compared with – 76.0% / – 70.5% / – 39.1% / – 85.0% / – 75.3% in 2019, and the overall level is equivalent to the same period in 2020. The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic. With the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the passenger flow of China International Airlines is expected to gradually recover.
In the long run, the airport’s aviation business is stable, while the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Road and Railway: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and relevant sanctions may affect Russia’s and Global trade, and the demand for relevant lines between China, Russia and China and Europe may increase. Pay attention to the progress of sanctions and changes in trade pattern: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, but it has not been eased in the short term. Affected by the relevant sanctions, Russia’s trade with Europe, the United States and around the world is uncertain, and the trade pattern of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy and other bulk commodities may change. Superimposed on the mutual closure of airspace between countries and Russia, the demand for relevant land transportation routes between China, Russia and Central Europe may increase. According to the China EU train transportation coordination committee, except that some trains involving the Ukrainian line had been suspended or detoured before the war, the China EU train remained stable after the war.
Investment strategy of this week: the volume and price performance of leading express enterprises from January to February are bright, the industrial regulatory policies were intensively implemented in March, and the short-term local epidemic has disturbed the demand. However, Tongda express still has certainty and performance flexibility in 2022, and is optimistic about the inflection point and leading value of the industry. In addition, Shunfeng, the leader of comprehensive logistics, ushered in the inflection point of operation; China’s aviation demand has been impacted by the epidemic in the short term. Scientific epidemic prevention has released positive signals. The number of new cases in Hong Kong has dropped significantly. Overseas countries have gradually relaxed control. At the same time, the certainty of supply has slowed down. It is optimistic that the supply and demand of the aviation industry will be reversed, and the market-oriented reform of ticket prices will open up flexible space. Combination of this week: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
