Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); The titanium dioxide ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002is the date of the 3535 \ ) etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. It is recommended to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter into large-scale refining and excellent private refining enterprises with C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ); Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products fell, the oil price of core raw materials fell, LPG gas fell, LNG gas fell and coal price rose; C5. The prices of some chemical fertilizers and amino acids increased. This week, China’s chemical price index ccpi-3.3%; The price of core raw materials is – 4.2%, imported LPG – 10.3%, domestic LNG – 6.0%, bituminous coal + 49.7%.
On the raw material side, the prices of some products of C5 rose, while the prices of some products of C3 and aromatics fell; On the product side, the prices of some chemical fertilizers and amino acids rose, while the prices of some chemical fiber, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, rubber, plastics and vitamins fell.
Oil prices fell this week, the situation between Russia and Ukraine eased, and Iran’s nuclear agreement is expected to be reached.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution fell from 112.7 to 107.9 US dollars / barrel (down 4.2%), and the settlement price of us oil fell from 109.3 to 104.7 US dollars / barrel (down 4.2%); US commercial crude oil inventories reached 416 million barrels (mom + 1.1%), and 524 US crude oil wells were drilled (Mom – 0.6%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are continuing, and the market is optimistic about the armistice trend. In addition, the Independent reported on March 19 that according to Simon covinny, Irish Minister of foreign affairs and defense, Iran’s nuclear agreement may be reached within 48 hours, which is expected to restore Iran’s oil exports. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the global epidemic has rebounded recently, which has inhibited the formation of crude oil. From the perspective of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Fed’s interest rate hike has been implemented within the week, which is good for the long-term strength of the US dollar and negative pressure on oil prices. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, although Russia has not completely stopped military operations, the general direction of the situation between Russia and Ukraine is still easing. In addition, Iran’s nuclear agreement is expected to be reached.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: European and American natural gas futures rose or fell this week, NBP – 36.02%, TTF – 34.46%, HH + 4.86% and AECO + 7.42%. There was a correction in spot, HH spot chain – 2.61%; Canada AECO spot chain – 12.74%, Europe TTF spot chain – 47.19%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 10572 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 3.40%; the average sales price at the terminal was 8153 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 10 yuan / ton (- 0.01%).
Inventory tracking: European and American natural gas inventories continued to decline this week. According to EIA data, as of March 11, the US natural gas inventory was 1440 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 79 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 5.20%, year-on-year ratio of – 19.30%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of March 11, the European natural gas inventory was 992946 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 58.1 billion cubic feet (a month on month ratio of – 5.53%, a year-on-year ratio of – 20.00%).
China’s price: China’s LNG fell slightly this week. As of March 17, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 7135 yuan / ton, down from – 4.51% last week; The prices of consumer places went down simultaneously. As of March 17, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 8021 yuan / ton, down – 2.76% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 8803 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 1.04%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are sulfuric acid + 20%, ammonium chloride + 14%, chloroacetic acid + 13%, isoprene + 11%, liquid ammonia + 8%, chloroform + 6%, butadiene + 5%, PVC paste resin + 4%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are glufosinate-14%, n-butanol-12%, maleic anhydride-12%, isooctanol-10%, vitamin b9-9%, isobutene-9%, acetic acid-9%, glyphosate-9%, dop-9%, etc.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon + 1%, trichlorosilane is the same, soda ash (light weight – 2%, heavy weight is the same), vinyl acetate + 4%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) is equal. Chemical products related to the lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid – 4%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade is the same, battery grade is the same), iron phosphate is the same, industrial ammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, lithium hexafluorophosphate – 6%, etc.
The cost of liquid ammonia is supported, the downstream of fertilizer peak season is started, and the price of ammonium chloride rises.
Ammonium chloride (Nongshi, Huachang, Jiangsu) rose 14.3% to 1200 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, liquid ammonia (Shandong) rose 7.7% to 4200 yuan / ton this week, forming cost support; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the current peak season for fertilizer use is the first time, the downstream starts to warm up, and the goods are actively taken to form a good situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, the sales pressure of enterprises is small, most of them maintain low inventory, and the overall inventory continues to decrease. In addition, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the urea market is strong and upward, which will stimulate the market to a certain extent.
The mood in the downstream was stable, and the epidemic affected the construction, pushing up the price of chloroacetic acid.
Chloroacetic acid (Hebei) rose 12.5% to 5625 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the market sentiment of downstream pesticide and pharmaceutical industries is stable; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, due to the impact of covid-19 virus in China, the transportation of raw materials in the market is slow. Due to public health events in the peripheral Shandong region, the transportation of raw materials acetic acid is blocked, the commencement of chloroacetic acid units is limited, and some enterprises are temporarily stopped. Due to local public health emergencies, the transportation rhythm of chloroacetic acid slows down and the transaction is slow in Shandong region, Shanxi The production units of chloroacetic acid enterprises in Henan Province remained basically stable.
Downstream procurement is active, the supply of goods in some areas is limited, and the price of chloroform rises.
Chloroform (East China) rose 6.1% to 6100 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the enthusiasm of downstream refrigerant users is fair, and some traders and downstream users have poor logistics due to the impact of the epidemic, so they mostly take goods locally; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current market supply in some areas is limited. Although the construction of Shandong Jinling Dongying plant has returned to normal, the current construction of some manufacturers is not high, and the inventory continues to be low, forming the support of the supply side.
External prices rose, spot supply tightened, and butadiene prices continued to rise.
Butadiene (East China) rose 5.0% to 10500 yuan / ton this week. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the external price of butadiene continued to rise, and butadiene (FOB in Korea) rose 8.8% to US $1360 / ton this week, boosting mentality; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream tire market demand of the terminal is general; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current spot supply of butadiene is tightening. Yangzi Petrochemical’s annual production capacity of 120000 T / A is in normal operation. The overhaul is planned from March 15 to May 28. Shanghai SECCO’s annual production capacity of 180000 T / a extraction unit is planned to be overhauled in mid March and is expected to restart in early April. The overhaul of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s phase II production capacity of 250000 T / a extraction unit was originally planned to be overhauled in March and postponed to April.
There is support for raw materials, and the overall operation is not high, pushing up the price of PVC paste resin.
PVC paste resin (M31, Shenyang Chemical Co.Ltd(000698) ) rose 3.8% to 10800 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, calcium carbide (northwest) rose 2.2% to 4459 yuan / ton this week, supporting the cost; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, the construction of large batch material factories is OK, and the orders of downstream glove factories in April are slightly better than those in March. With the end of the two sessions and the Winter Olympic Games, the terminals have resumed work one after another, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the overall market supply decreased slightly this week, and the overall industry construction is still not high. Individual manufacturers in Northwest and Hebei operate at low load, and some paste resin enterprises continue to stop.
Overseas supply decreased, the spot market was in short supply, and the price of potash fertilizer rose.
Potassium sulfate (50%, Shandong) rose 2.1% to 4800 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the State Reserve releases goods to the downstream to alleviate the shortage of some raw materials; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current market circulation spot is still in short supply. Recently, affected by the epidemic, some ports have suspended shipment, and the market circulation is small. Overseas, after Russian ships withdrew from Baltic / Black Sea ports, market concerns about the reduction of global potash supply are pushing up prices.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
