Industrial metals: downstream demand gradually recovers
Aluminum: China’s electrolytic aluminum social inventory appeared for the first time after the festival
This week, China’s social inventory of electrolytic aluminum reached 1.089 million tons, with a decrease of 53000 tons on a week-on-week basis. It appeared to go to the warehouse for the first time since the holiday. At present, some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China have completed the resumption of production. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has reached 39.12 million tons, and the operating rate has reached 84.4%. Overseas, the European energy crisis has led to continued supply disturbance, and the tightening of sanctions against Russia has further exacerbated the contraction expectation of Russian aluminum supply. In the future, overseas aluminum prices may remain high, mainly benefiting Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , etc.
Copper: the inventory of copper in Shanghai has been accelerated and the high copper price has been supported in the short term
This week, the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp, which had been fully digested by the market and had a limited impact on the overall copper price. In addition, the overall performance of China’s macroeconomic data from January to February this week was better than expected, superimposed with the positive attitude of the gold Commission of the State Council on stabilizing the economy and housing prices, and market confidence was significantly boosted. Although the current epidemic situation has affected the recovery speed of downstream demand, the implementation of financial document No. 40 has led to a shortage of short-term waste copper supply and the accelerated decontamination of copper inventory in Shanghai, which has made its inventory level the lowest in the same period in recent four years. On the whole, it has better supported the rise of copper price, mainly benefiting Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , etc.
Boom: the contradiction between supply and demand in the metal industry continues to rise
Lithium: the terminal demand is strong, and the supply shortage is difficult to alleviate
In mid February, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of more than 200% and 180% respectively. There is strong demand for lithium salt downstream terminals. On the supply side, there is a shortage of overseas lithium concentrate, which is mainly underwritten by the long-term association, with few bulk orders. The production reduction of China’s salt lakes due to seasonal weather has not ended, and the overall supply of lithium salt is still insufficient. Although lithium salt prices continued to strengthen this week and the trend slowed down, judging from the current supply and demand pattern, lithium salt prices will still have strong support in the future, mainly benefiting from Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , etc.
Cobalt: the tight supply and demand situation has not been alleviated, and the price may maintain a strong shock
In terms of cobalt, the supply of cobalt raw materials, electric cobalt, cobalt salt and other products is still tight, and China’s inventory continues to decline. Since March, due to the continuous rise of raw material prices, under the boom of high demand, mainstream new energy vehicle enterprises have raised the quotation of all their models. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the spot market, but as March gradually enters the peak demand season, the cobalt price may fluctuate strongly, and the main beneficiaries include Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Rare earth: supply tension intensifies, and prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall
Rare earth prices continued to decline slightly this week. At present, the epidemic situation in Myanmar is still severe, the shortage of imported ore supply is increasing, and the increase of China’s index supply is also relatively limited. With the accelerated release of downstream demand for new energy vehicles, motors and wind power, rare earth prices are expected to continue to strengthen, mainly benefiting China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) , etc.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to superimpose high overseas inflation, and the price of precious metals is strongly supported
This week, the Federal Reserve announced a 25bp increase in interest rates, which basically met market expectations. Considering the current high inflation in the United States, the current rate hike rhythm is not enough to curb the high inflation trading enthusiasm of the market. At the same time, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still likely to be repeated, further supporting the high price of precious metals, mainly benefiting Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , etc.
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the monetary policy shrinks more than expected, the global epidemic is repeated, etc.
