Zhou’s view: core growth leads, post cycle and new technology surpass
(1) new energy vehicles: in the long run, this round of industry upward cycle is an opportunity from 1 to 10, which is the best period in the industry life cycle; In the medium term, the industry upward cycle has entered the third stage, and the focus of analysis is on the supply side; In the short term, the most contradictory stage of the industrial chain is about to pass, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is about to confirm the high point, the price rise in the downstream is about to be straightened out, and the growth environment of the industry will be better. We are optimistic about this round of rebound. Judging from the rebound rhythm, Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) and other core growth companies confirmed the performance exceeding expectations in the first quarter through the data from January to February, which is expected to lead the rise; From the layout of Tesla, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other companies, new technologies such as post cycle energy storage and 4680 are expected to accelerate the development, thus bringing upward flexibility. We believe that the growth environment of the industry will improve marginally in the next one or two months, and we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (battery, lithium resources, diaphragm, negative electrode, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other companies will benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and others benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest according to the penetration rate, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic: from the operating data from January to February, the performance of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) and other core growth companies in the first quarter is expected to exceed expectations. The rise of short-term silicon material price has had a certain negative feedback on the downstream, waiting for the continuous release of production capacity in the future; In the coming year, the expansion of new fields such as distributed photovoltaic will exceed expectations, and the expansion of new technologies such as photovoltaic high-efficiency cells will exceed expectations in the future. We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) terminal links such as global leading components with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) and other benefits; (b) Innovation at the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, localization of parts, etc.) benefits Jingke energy, poly GCL energy, Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) etc. (c) Power station and other post cycle links, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , etc.
(3) wind power: Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) and other core growth companies strengthen regional layout to consolidate the position of their first echelon; The bidding price of industrial chain products has reached the relative bottom range; It is expected to reshape the valuation cycle of the industry in 2022. Companies like Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and others will benefit from long-term bullish on offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts.
Series of reports on the depth of energy storage (II): leading enterprises in the industrial chain set sail in the wind
From the perspective of status: new energy storage is clean energy and the pillar of social progress. Policies drive the rapid development of energy storage industry outside China. From the perspective of development stage: China’s energy storage is a development stage from 0-1, and the power grid / generation side has a certain room for improvement at the level of business model. The energy storage industry chain is becoming more and more mature. It is suggested to consider from the perspectives of value, performance growth, proportion of energy storage revenue, industry barriers and concentration.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: the second batch of catalogue battery matching: LFP accounts for 75%
New energy automobile company: Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) issued an announcement on the first repurchase of the company’s shares
Photovoltaic industry: Tianjin and Sichuan released the 14th five year plan for renewable energy development
Photovoltaic company level: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) release the production and marketing operation express from January to February 2022
At the level of wind energy industry: from January to February, the total bidding scale of wind power projects was 5788.1mw, and 12 complete machine manufacturers won the bid
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
