Weekly observation: the pig price fell below 12 yuan / kg, the passive clearing of production capacity was accelerated, and the pig breeding sector was mainly recommended
As of March 18, 2022, the national average selling price of pigs was 11.57 yuan / kg, down 0.39 yuan / kg on a weekly basis. Nationally, the average selling price of pigs in other provinces, cities and autonomous regions fell below 12 yuan / kg, except that the price of pigs in Guangdong Province remained above 12 yuan / kg. From the perspective of pig feed price, the average price of fattening pig compound this week was 3.75 yuan / kg, with a weekly month on month increase of 0.02 yuan / kg and a monthly month on month increase of 0.10 yuan / kg. The price ratio of pig feed this week was 3.17, and the weekly month on month decrease was 0.08. According to Yongyi consulting data, the price of 15kg piglets this week was 403 yuan / head, up 4 yuan / head month on month. In terms of losses of pig breeding heads, the losses of self breeding heads are about 547 yuan / head, the losses of outsourcing fattening heads are about 258 yuan / head, and the losses of heads are expanding month on month. The capacity clearing in 2022h1 will be more passive clearing of low cost capacity. At this stage, the rhythm and range of capacity de conversion will be more sensitive to the expectations of short-term pig price and long-term pig price. The essence of cycle reciprocation is the survival of the fittest. The cycle will turn upward only when the cost and capital disadvantage capacity are abandoned. Therefore, we believe that the bottom game is the necessity of each cycle, and the industry cycle law is difficult to stabilize.
Zhou's view: the reversal of the pig cycle is imminent, and food prices continue to rise due to multidimensional catalysis
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China's leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; The basic contact surface will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rises, the demand in the lower reaches is booming, and the concentration of feed market in the middle reaches continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Market performance this week (3.14-3.18): Agriculture underperformed the market by 0.35 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.77% and the agricultural index fell by 2.12%, underperforming the market by 0.35 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the fishery sector led the rise, with an increase of 2.87%. In terms of individual stocks, ST Toyo (+ 14.52%), Cnfc Overseas Fisheries Co.Ltd(000798) (+ 5.17%) and Shanghai Hile Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(603718) (+ 4.08%) led the gains.
Price tracking this week (3.14-3.18): the prices of wool chicken, corn and soybean meal rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on March 18, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 11.64 yuan / kg, down 0.13 yuan / kg from yesterday; The average price of piglets was 23.96 yuan / kg, up 0.01 yuan / kg from yesterday; The average price of white striped meat was 15.68 yuan / kg, down 0.12 yuan / kg from yesterday. The price ratio of pig feed today was 3.13:1, down 0.03 from yesterday. According to wind data, on March 18, the average profit of self breeding head was -547.16 yuan / head, compared with -29.31 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets is -258.05 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -64.55 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 0.76 yuan / feather, with a month on month ratio of - 31.53%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.84 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 0.38%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was -0.56 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 0.09 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
