This week’s view:
Planting industry chain: Recently, the prices of feed raw materials such as wheat, corn and soybean meal have fluctuated significantly, and the prices are at a high level. The incentive is that the destruction of important port facilities such as Odessa, Ukraine, led to the interruption of wheat and corn exports. At the same time, Russian exports are also affected by Western sanctions. In terms of output and trade, the total output of corn in Russia and Ukraine accounts for about 4.73% of the total global output, and the export accounts for about 18.66% of the global export volume; The total wheat output of the two countries accounts for about 13.97% of the total global output, and the export accounts for about 28.54% of the global export volume. If the export problems of Russia and Ukraine cannot be alleviated, or the supply gap of other countries has not been filled, and the international situation affects the planting of crops in Ukraine after April, thus affecting the output in 2022, the food price may rise further. On the Chinese side, in order to thoroughly implement the central government’s decision and deployment on the revitalization of the seed industry, punish seed related crimes according to law, comprehensively purify the seed industry market, safeguard the safety of national seed sources, and accelerate the revitalization of the seed industry, the Supreme People’s Court issued guidance on Further Strengthening the criminal trial work related to seeds. The guidance points out that it will solve the problem of difficult identification according to law, accurately identify fake and shoddy seeds, increase the punishment of seed related crimes such as counterfeiting and selling, licensing infringement and destruction of germplasm resources, and increase the punishment of seed related crimes such as counterfeiting and selling, licensing infringement and destruction of germplasm resources. With the gradual improvement of the relevant systems of criminal trials involving seeds, the seed rights and interests of listed companies related to the seed industry will be effectively protected. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2022 has been six years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the stable target focuses on recommending Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , the leader of China’s sugar industry, and the flexible target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks with a valuation of only 10 times Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) . We expect that the performance elasticity in 2022 will come from the production of new lysine capacity by the end of 2021. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 11.99 yuan / kg, down 1.40% on a weekly basis. Recently, pig prices continued to decline. There are three main reasons for the long-term downturn of pig prices: first, the supply of pig market is too loose. Driven by a series of support policies in the early stage, pig production capacity has excessively recovered, resulting in overcapacity. Superimposed on the recent continuous decline of pig prices, the situation of oversupply has been seriously exacerbated; Second, the demand for pork consumption is insufficient. After the winter of 2021, the pork consumption boom of “low price effect + wax making tide” overdraw the later consumption demand. Affected by the local epidemic in China, the consumption of catering and tourism is sluggish, and the demand for pork consumption decreases; Third, the collection and storage policy has limited efforts to support the market. Many provinces across the country have launched a new round of pork collection and storage policy, but the collection and storage volume is limited (the total national collection and storage is 200000 tons), which has failed to fundamentally reverse the situation of oversupply in the market. In addition, the international food shortage has intensified, driving the rise of feed prices. Since mid March, a number of feed enterprises have announced that pig and poultry products have increased by 75-300 yuan / ton. The current situation of the industry with low pig prices and expensive pig materials promotes most breeding entities to sell in advance to reduce breeding losses. With the accelerated deregulation of production capacity, head pig enterprises will usher in greater development space. From the current time node, the market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has dropped to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8 , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected.
