Key investment points
General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Interest rate stabilization, i.e. insurance valuation. ① Property insurance, auto insurance and non car co frequency resonance, the competition pattern has stabilized, and the advantages of leading insurance enterprises have expanded. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the year-on-year growth of premium income has been significantly improved. At the same time, the premium of non auto insurance has continued to increase; In the medium and long term, the scale effect will be further strengthened. Leading insurance companies are expected to further expand their profit space and strengthen competitive barriers by virtue of their advantages in rates, channels and brands. ② In the short term, due to the contradiction between supply and demand of the industry, the pressure on the liability side of life insurance is significant. Under the background of stabilizing the interest rate on the investment side, the “policy bottom” of real estate has been established. In order to ensure the steady development of real estate, there are signs of relaxation of real estate financing conditions, and the risk of venture capital real estate investment has been mitigated. In the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the trend of population aging and the strategic requirements of “healthy China”, the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction: the gradual formation of medical and nursing ecology of insurance enterprises, with the increasing demand for health care, drives the industry to a virtuous circle of development and growth, and is expected to promote the trend improvement of both ends of industry assets and liabilities. Soochow Bank of Africa’s recommended sectors: securities, insurance, recommended stock combinations [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) comments on the 2021 annual report of China stock market news: ① the performance is in line with expectations. With the rapid development of the equity market, Dongcai’s performance continues to maintain high growth; ② The good trading direction drives the high growth of retail securities performance, and the growth rate of fund ownership leads the industry; Under the market shock, the company’s business shows high growth and is optimistic about the new era of wealth management. 2) Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) 2021 annual report comments: ① under the market shock, the company’s business shows high growth and is optimistic about the new era of wealth management;
② the quality of property insurance business is maintained and continuously optimized; ③ China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) impairment dragged down the growth of investment income; ④ The company carefully adjusted non economic assumptions. The slowdown of EV growth was affected by the negative contribution of NBV growth slowdown and investment return difference. 3) Comments on the 2021 annual report of Far East Hongxin: ① keep pace with “Finance + industry”, smooth external fluctuations and achieve steady growth; ② The competition pattern of the industry has been improved, traditional + new businesses have made concerted efforts, and the main financial industry is always strong; ③ Hongxin Jianfa, a subsidiary of Hongxin construction and Development Co., Ltd., is in great momentum, and the complex industry helps the company to revalue its value.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is less than expected; 2) Policy tightening inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
