Core view of this week: in order to boost the overall economic confidence, the six ministries and commissions jointly made a statement to clarify the signal of “stabilizing real estate”. The statement involves policy direction, supporting M & A loans and promoting the positive development of the industry. Among them, the suspension and expansion of the pilot of real estate tax has a more direct and specific significance for the improvement expected by the market, has a certain transformation effect on the current wait-and-see mood of home buyers, and is expected to release demand. After the joint statement, the real estate sector set off a wave of price limit. With the implementation of policies, market confidence is boosted, and the industry fundamentals are expected to hit the bottom and rise.
Key policy analysis: the six ministries and commissions jointly stated that in order to boost the confidence of the overall economy, the financial commission has made clear its attitude towards the real estate industry. The CBRC, the CSRC, the Ministry of finance, the administration of foreign exchange and other institutions have expressed their attitude towards the real estate industry one after another. The financial commission said: relevant departments should actively introduce policies conducive to the market and carefully introduce contractionary policies. With regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model. The ministries and commissions of the real estate Regulatory Commission expressed their support for the healthy development of high-quality real estate enterprises, and then actively promoted the healthy development of high-quality real estate enterprises through mergers and acquisitions of real estate enterprises. The CSRC said: actively cooperate with relevant departments to effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises. Safe said: cooperate with relevant departments to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market. The central bank said: we should strive for progress while maintaining stability and prevent and resolve risks in the real estate market. The Ministry of Finance said that it does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year. The signal of “stabilizing real estate” is clearer, which is of great significance to boost industry confidence and stabilize market expectations. In the short term, the real estate industry needs to boost the demand side to resolve risks and improve real estate investment.
One week market review: this week (2022 / 3 / 142022 / 3 / 20), Shenwan real estate rose 1.98%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.76pct, ranking first in all sectors, and the Hang Seng real estate construction industry index rose 4.05%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.83pct. The real estate companies with the top three increases this week are Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) (61.08%), Longguang group (29.12%) and Yuzhou group (24.71%). The top three real estate companies that fell this week were Black Peony (Group) Co.Ltd(600510) (- 15.85%), Lvjing China real estate (- 10.47%) and Shenzhen Wongtee International Enterprise Co.Ltd(000056) (- 5.84%). This week (March 14, 2022-march 20, 2022), the Hang Seng property service and management sector rose 3.67%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.44pct, underperforming the Hang Seng China enterprise index by 0.66pct, ranking 14th / 28 among various sectors. The top three companies that rose this week were: Ya life service (20.39%), Hejing Youhuo (12.78%) and Greentown Management Holdings (9.58%). The top three companies that fell this week were: first service Holdings (- 14.74%), Baolong Commerce (- 13.56%) and Zhengrong service (- 8.7%).
Real estate market monitoring: from last Saturday to Friday (2022 / 3 / 122022 / 3 / 18), the transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 1.7876 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 11.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 53.2%. The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities was 1310300 square meters, a month on month decrease of 12.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.2%. Last week (2022 / 3 / 6-2022 / 3 / 13), the land supply and construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 280161 million square meters, down 17.3% year-on-year and 10.15% month on month. The land transaction and construction area was 134786 million square meters, down 71.4% year-on-year and 50.45% month on month. Due to the reduction of transactions, the supply-demand ratio rose to 2.
Financing of real estate enterprises: this week (March 14, 2022-march 20, 2022), the total amount of new bonds issued by real estate enterprises in China was 16.17 billion yuan, an increase of 36% year-on-year and 23.43% month on month. In terms of trust issuance, 26 real estate trusts were issued this week, with an issuance scale of 2.309 billion yuan, an increase of 33.93% month on month. The average annual yield is 7.74% and the average term is 1.54 years.
Risk factors: policy risk: the progress of policy relaxation is less than expected. Market risk: the market recovery of the real estate industry is less than expected.
