Market review this week:
CITIC coal index closed at 285364 points, down 3.61%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.67pct, ranking 28th in the list of gains and losses of CITIC primary sector.
Analysis of key areas:
Power coal: with the advent of seasonal off-season, the market is consolidated. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of port q5500 was about 1500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 300 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of producing areas, the main producing areas actively responded to the call to maintain supply and stabilize prices. The production of most coal mines was stable, and a few coal mines stopped production or reduced production due to changing working faces. The overall supply was normal, and the utilization rate of coal mine capacity was at a high level as a whole; Due to the wide-ranging rebound of the epidemic and the rise of oil prices, the efficiency of automobile transportation has decreased and the cost of automobile transportation has increased significantly. However, the railway transportation capacity has basically reached full capacity and tilted to Changxie coal, resulting in the bottleneck of transportation in the main producing area and the rapid accumulation of storage at the pit mouth. In terms of ports, the upstream origin supply, the origin strictly investigate the performance of medium and long-term contracts, the railway traffic volume increases, the Datong Qinhuangdao line is maintained at full capacity, and the port transfer in continues to improve. Due to the closure of shipping in strong wind and fog, the ship operation is affected, the epidemic situation is relatively severe, the off-season is approaching, the market wait-and-see mood is rising, the procurement of power plants is dominated by rigid demand, and the transfer out volume is decreasing. On the whole, the transfer out is less than the transfer in, and the inventory of Beigang continues to increase, but it is still at a low level year-on-year, and the function of the reservoir is poor. Downstream, the daily consumption increased slightly, and the power plant continued to go to the warehouse. This week, many places ushered in cooling and snowing weather, driving the growth of heating power consumption and a slight increase in daily consumption; Based on the decline of coal supply of the power plant, the power plant is still in the state of destocking. In terms of import, the demand of major importing countries decreased, the procurement enthusiasm was poor, the imported power coal market remained cold as a whole, and the overseas coal price fell slightly. On the whole, the profit of the shipping port of origin expanded, and the transfer in of the port increased. With the end of the heating season, the policy regulation increased, the procurement demand of the power plant weakened slightly, and the shipping closure led to the limited transfer out, the passive accumulation of port inventory, and the coal price also fell first and then stabilized. In the short term, the upstream and downstream game, the market belongs to the adjustment stage, and in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the changes of China’s policies and demand side. The main contradiction of the power coal market is still in the coastal area, the storage of power coal in the port is at a low level in recent years, and the function of the reservoir is weakened; At the same time, the cost of imported coal is high, and China’s coal price is facing policy risks at any time, or lead to the reduction of import quantity, which will affect the supply of coastal power coal. If the problem of low inventory along the coast cannot be solved, even in the off-season, the coal price will rise again after the periodic decline. The medium and short-term 700800 yuan / ton should be the bottom area of the coastal coal price.
Coking coal: the price is stable and strong, and there is still room for price increase in the future. This week, the coking coal market was stable and strong. After the sharp rise in prices in the previous two weeks, the fear of heights in the market gradually rose, the market mood cooled, and the auction began to appear the phenomenon of off auction and price reduction. However, some coal mines still have the phenomenon of price increase due to the low inventory and temporary stability of prices. As of Friday, the Shanxi main coke of Jingtang Port had closed at 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. This week, affected by the environmental protection policies during the two sessions, the coal mines that reduced production have gradually returned to normal production, and the overall commencement of production has increased slightly. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, due to the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation in Mongolia, the number of customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port continued to increase. According to sxcoal data, customs clearance for three days this week (3.14-3.17), with an average of 191 vehicles per day, an increase of 17 vehicles per day compared with the same period of the week before the festival; Although the customs clearance volume has increased, the available resources are limited, and the price of Chinese coking coal is stable and strong. The quotation of Mongolian coal continues to rise this week. At present, the mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 24 Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 clean coal is about 29503000 yuan / ton. On the demand side, coke steel enterprises have many medium and low raw coal warehouses in the plant, which has a good demand for raw coal. However, some coke steel enterprises are relatively cautious in purchasing raw coal because of the continuous tightening of profits and the relatively high cost side price. In the short term, since the end of the heating season, the steel plant has entered the production resumption cycle. The average daily output of molten iron has increased as the mainstream trend, superimposed with the low inventory of coke steel enterprises, and the downstream active replenishment power is sufficient. After the epidemic situation improves, the price of coke coal will still rise strongly.
Coke: the fourth round of rising and landing, and the subsequent steel coke game intensified. This week, the fourth round of coke rise landed. This round of rise was 200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative rise of 800 yuan / ton. On the supply side, with the end of the two sessions and the winter Paralympic Games, local environmental protection and production restrictions have been gradually relaxed, the profits of superimposed coke have been repaired after several rounds of increase, the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises has been improved, and the pressure on the short-term coke supply side has been slightly relieved; At the same time, the fourth round of rising and landing, and the profit per ton of coke continued to improve. On the demand side, the blast furnace of steel mills in North China has gradually resumed production, the blast furnace operation and hot metal production have rebounded significantly, the rigid demand has increased, the superimposed epidemic situation has affected the poor transportation, the inventory of steel mills is at a low level, and the efforts to replenish the stock have increased. On the whole, the resumption of production of the steel plant is stronger than that of the coking plant, the short-term demand is greater than the demand, the transportation capacity is blocked under the influence of the epidemic, the arrival of the steel plant is less than expected, and the steel plant has reduced the storage for four consecutive weeks. The coke enterprises produce and sell as soon as they are produced, the inventory runs at a low level, and the short-term tension between supply and demand is difficult to resolve. In addition, the high raw material cost continues to support the strong operation of coke, and the short-term market is still expected to rise. However, considering the rapid compression of steel plant profits and the unexpected demand recovery under the influence of the epidemic, the steel coke game may intensify in the later stage.
Investment strategy. China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited room for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the central rise of coal price will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. In addition, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal, coking coal and coke prices are all global price depressions, and the upside down of prices will significantly affect China’s import volume. Even there is export arbitrage space for some varieties after processing finished products, which will form a strong support for China’s coal prices. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . Key recommendations: Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) ; Anthracite target Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , benefiting from the development of coal chemical industry. In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of “double carbon” is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Risk tip: China’s output release exceeded expectations, the downstream demand was less than expected, and the on grid electricity price was significantly reduced.
