Breeding sector: 1) live pigs: the price of pigs and the ratio of pig to grain continued to decline, the degree of loss continued to deepen, and the certainty of capacity removal trend strengthened. On March 10, 2022, the price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.3 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 57.88%; As of January 2022, the number of fertile sows in China has reached 42.9 million, with a month on month decrease of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. It has turned negative for the first time since June 2020. As of March 11, 2022, the profit loss of outsourcing piglet breeding is 258.05 yuan / head, and the loss of self breeding is 547.16 yuan / head. The loss of self breeding and self breeding has increased for 12 consecutive weeks. The price of soybean meal and other main feed raw materials is high, and the third batch of collection and storage may be started soon. It is estimated that the first half of 2022 will still face the marketing peak brought by the inertia of reproduction, the upward probability of pig price is small, and the deep loss of breeding will continue. From the perspective of binary sow and piglet prices, the industry’s willingness to make up the market is still relatively low. Therefore, we believe that the certainty of capacity removal trend has been strengthened, and the superposition of cost end and pig price pressure is expected to accelerate, so we continue to be optimistic about the layout opportunities on the left, In the future, considering multiple factors such as the flexibility and certainty of marketing and the space for cost reduction, the pig sector is recommended: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , and it is recommended to pay attention to: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) . 2) Poultry: the price of chicken has risen steadily, and we continue to be optimistic about the medium-term price trend of yellow chicken. The demand gradually recovered, and the supply side supported the price of yellow chicken to stop falling and recover. The average price of fast big chicken, medium speed chicken, native chicken and black bone chicken was 6.30 yuan / 6.86 yuan / 8.54 yuan / 8.65 yuan / 500g as of March 16, 2022, with a change of + 2.94% / + 5.21% / + 0.12% / + 7.05% on a weekly basis and – 8.70% / – 2.83% / + 0.12% / + 12.34% on a year-on-year basis. By the end of 2021q4, the stock of yellow feather chicken has basically dropped to the normal level in 2018. Affected by the repeated covid-19 epidemic and other factors, the industry’s willingness to invest seedlings is weak. The supply side is expected to still form a strong support for the chicken price in the first half of the year. It is optimistic about the leader of yellow chicken breeding industry with good cost control ability and growth. Key recommendations: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , suggestions: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) . 3) Beef cattle breeding: in September 2020, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the high-quality development of animal husbandry, which put forward the goal of “maintaining the annual self-sufficiency rate of beef and mutton at about 85%. There is a large gap between supply and demand in the industry. Pay attention to the opportunities of large-scale beef cattle breeding. It is suggested to pay attention to: Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) .
Animal protection sector: the deadline for the new version of GMP is approaching, and the leader of R & D + production + market advantage will benefit. Under the background of the effective promotion of the policy of “fight first and then supplement” and the gradual and complete abolition of the policy of political seedling collection in 2025, veterinary biological products usher in the era of market-oriented development; Since July 2020, there has been a comprehensive “ban on resistance” in feed, and “limit resistance” and “reduce resistance” in breeding. The demand for high-end therapeutic veterinary chemicals has ushered in rapid growth; The code for quality management of veterinary drug production (revised in 2020) was issued on April 21, 2020 and will be implemented from June 1, 2020. By May 31, 2022, the backward industry capacity that has not reached the new target has not been reached or has been eliminated, the industry access threshold has been raised, and the competition pattern is expected to be optimized rapidly. In the medium and long term, industry leaders with the advantages of joint research and development of front-end scientific research institutes + high-quality production capacity + market channels are expected to make full profits. Key recommendations: China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) – market seedlings and high-end chemical drugs support high performance growth. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Hvsen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300871) , Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) .
Seed industry sector: Document No. 1 and the government work report of the two sessions again mention food security and pay attention to the long-term layout opportunities of seed industry. The issue of Document No. 1 in 2022 and the government work report of the two sessions on March 5 once again emphasized the theme of food security and seed industry revitalization, and the action plan for seed industry revitalization was adopted in July 2021; In November 2021, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the decision of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas on amending some seed industry regulations (Draft for comments), adding relevant rules on the approval of genetically modified crop varieties; In addition, with the completion of the revision of the seed law in 2021, the threshold of the approval standard of corn and other varieties is raised, and the trend of industrial intellectual property protection and leading concentration is expected to appear. We are optimistic about the industry leaders with variety advantages and R & D advantages. We suggest to pay attention to: Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) .
Risk tips: sudden epidemics or natural disasters, repeated covid-19 epidemics, and the implementation progress of industrial policies is less than expected.
