1 - special topic of this week: steady growth of clothing from January to February, outstanding performance of sports shoes, clothing and jewelry
The overall growth rate rose, showing a good development trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to February 2022 was 7422.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to February actually increased by 4.9% year-on-year. 1) In terms of sub categories, gold, silver and jewelry increased by 19.5% year-on-year in the same month; Clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the same month. 2) In terms of subdivided channels, the online retail sales of physical goods from January to February were 163711 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3%, accounting for 22.0% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods; Among the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 12.7%, 3.9% and 15.1% respectively. 3) According to the location of business units, the retail sales of urban consumer goods from January to February reached 6459.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 983.3 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1%.
The sports shoes and clothing company has gradually disclosed its annual report, with excellent performance in 2021 and continued growth momentum. This week, Tebu international and Li Ning group disclosed their outstanding performance in 2021. Li Ning's annual revenue / performance increased by 56% / 136% in 2021, exceeding expectations, and Tebu International's revenue / performance increased by 23% / 77% in 2021. According to the information of the public performance exchange meeting and our tracking judgment, the performance of Q1 in 2022 basically continues the growth momentum of H2 in 2021. Among them, the growth rate of Tebu Q1 is expected to exceed 30%, and the growth rate of Li Ning brand is also higher than that of Q4 last year as of mid March. Stimulated by the consumption of the festival and the Winter Olympic Games, we tracked and judged that the main brand of Anta sports and FILA brand achieved a left history growth of 20% offline.
Affected by the general environment, the stock price of sports shoes and clothing company has a large correction range. We have confidence in the long-term value of the company and the current valuation is attractive. Although Q2 has a high base effect, we think it has been reflected in the annual profit forecast. The brand of Li Ning group is likely to continue to rise, and China Li Ning and Li Ning 1990 built around "Li Ning" not only broaden the consumer favorite group, but also deepen the review and transmission of brand value. After continuous R & D investment on the product side, the renewal iteration still performs strongly in the positive competition with international brands. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 4.837/59.60/7.224 billion, with a compound growth rate of 22%, corresponding to 27x PE in 2022. Anta sports, as a multi brand sporting goods group, its core value lies in the group's platform operation ability. We are optimistic that Anta brand win-win plan will continue, DTC is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to usher in the improvement of OPM after DTC improvement in 22-23 years. At the same time, FILA brand will grow with high quality and many emerging brands will make efforts. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company of Anta Sports from 2021 to 2023 will be 7.75/94.0/12.11 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 25%, corresponding to 24x PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating. The main brand of Tebu international has a leading edge in the subdivided industries, and the development rhythm of new brands has been advancing steadily. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company of Tebu international from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.182/14.34/1.739 billion, with a compound growth rate of 21%, corresponding to a 22-year PE of 21x, maintaining the "buy" rating. Fashion clothing: from January to February, the flow was steady, and the monthly growth rate was first high and then low, which was mainly due to the early consumption peak driven by the early season, resulting in different base numbers. The flow of mass clothing fluctuated greatly, and the performance of medium and high-end clothing was stable. The core recommendation [ Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) ], corresponding to 18 times of PE in 22 years.
Sports sector: Recently, the sector has fluctuated due to the fluctuation of Hong Kong stock market, but the fundamentals are good: the short-term flow is growing rapidly. It is expected that there will be some pressure on the growth rate with the arrival of high base in the next March to April. In the medium and long term, the rise of sub sectors such as track growth + snow sports is expected to bring investment opportunities. According to the snow sports development plan, the scale of snow sports industry is expected to be 1 trillion yuan / drive 300 million people to participate in snow sports in 2025. We are firmly optimistic about high growth sports tracks in the medium and long term, and recommend [Li Ning, Anta sports, Tebu international and Shenzhou International], corresponding to 28 / 24 / 21 / 22 times of PE in 22 years, paying attention to Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , corresponding to 24 times of PE in 22 years. Jewelry sector: Festival demand + investment hedging demand has increased, and gold jewelry sales are hot. Gufajin and other products are sought after by the market, and the leading channels continue to sink. In the jewelry sector, we recommend [ Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) ], corresponding to 11 times of PE in 22 years.
