I. review and theme of this week:
This week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical index rose 1.08%, ranking the third in the industry, outperforming the CSI 300 index and losing the gem index. This week’s weekly newspaper once again strongly promoted Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , and sorted out the covid-19 vaccine event that the government attaches great importance to the mutant virus, and raised attention in special periods.
II. Recent resumption:
Performance this week: the market has gone out of a week of Super Deep V, with a rare sharp decline on Monday and Tuesday and a violent rebound from Wednesday to Friday. The general trend of pharmaceutical index is consistent with the market, and it is relatively stronger in the later stage. During the rebound, heavyweights and index stocks performed more strongly, but the weight indicators of medicine were relatively more differentiated. In terms of subdivided fields, covid-19 line is the strongest line, but it begins to differentiate internally. Covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs line is significantly stronger than others (such as covid-19 self-test, Pfizer MPP, covid-19 therapeutic drugs small molecule supply chain, traditional Chinese medicine anti epidemic, etc., which are not as strong as the previous system, and only individual targets perform well). The strongest small molecule therapeutic drugs is the main line of yanyeyi Association concept, Other covid-19 drugs are either deterministic domestic leaders such as Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , or newly excavated covid-19 drug targets such as Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co.Ltd(688687) . In addition, the vaccine performed well.
Cause analysis: in addition to the overall reasons of the market, the strength of medicine in the later stage is actually the embodiment of the overall comparative advantage. In the face of China’s overall international political and economic environment this year, the market still gradually recognizes the relative of medicine, so I won’t repeat it. Some pharmaceutical heavyweights perform well and are relatively easy to understand. They rebound quickly in a very short time. Considering the reaction speed and liquidity, it is inevitable that heavyweights and index stocks are the best choice. However, because some pharmaceutical stocks have unique sub domain concerns, the reaction of pharmaceutical heavyweights and index stocks will be more differentiated, which is different from other industries. Covid-19 line, with the progress of the epidemic, the change of supply pattern of each subdivision line and the deepening of market cognition, the last strong subdivision we think is the domestic covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drug line. With huge demand and high barriers, the supply pattern is difficult to break in the short term. This line should be paid attention to this year. Up to now, the market interpretation should pay special attention to the difference between certainty and expectation. Certainty is reflected in the grasp of the main line leader, The expected difference is reflected in the excavation of new targets. The mapping of overseas covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs has been rapidly transferred from Pfizer to yanye Yitiao line. The periodicity is a new theme, so the performance is relatively strong. Covid-19 self-test did not perform well, mainly because the supply side deteriorated too quickly, and it is difficult to recognize the use scenario in China’s unique anti epidemic environment. Pfizer MPP cashed in high and opened low, mainly because there were too many potential offers. Covid-19 small molecule supply chain, in which companies announce more and more layout capacity, and the scarcity slowly deteriorates. Then calculate the terminal push back situation, the market can only choose new companies, and others are not easy to participate. In fact, the market capacity of traditional Chinese medicine anti epidemic is very large in China, but the new covid-19 treatment scheme has come out, and there are too many products involving traditional Chinese medicine anti epidemic, so we can only focus on the small target of market value or the deterministic brand (such as Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) ). The performance of the vaccine is relatively strong this week, and there are many factors: the strong performance of Zhifei, the leader of large market value, the multi-dimensional sequential strengthening expectation of covid-19, the progress expectation of mRNA vaccine, the progress expectation of Watson 2-valent HPV vaccine, the oversold rebound expectation, etc. Finally, on the judgment of anti epidemic: I hope to continuously reset dynamically. At present, dynamic reset is more like the bottom line weapon to prevent outbreak. This is an objective reality. We want to gradually liberalize within the controllable range, but we can’t take huge risks, guide rational cognition, and enter a new stage of anti epidemic under the new equilibrium. This is the ideal strategy of hope. Once there are signs of getting out of control, it must be tightened quickly, which is a special national condition. It is the absolute bottom line not to cause a run on medical resources. The rapid expansion of anti epidemic kits (especially vaccines and therapeutic drugs) is a top priority. Any single extreme attitude and speculation is biased at the moment.
Current outlook: the main line of covid-19 should be strictly selected step by step, attach great importance to domestic covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs, grasp the faucet with one hand and dig the poor expectation with the other. Vaccines should be given renewed attention. In fact, there are four aspects of medium and short-term medicine: covid-19 medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, quarterly report and cdmo after clearing chips. From a one-year perspective, under the unique political and economic environment outside China this year, the relative comparative advantage of medicine has become more and more obvious after falling for nearly 9 months. It is suggested to gradually increase the attention and allocation of medicine.
III. sector view:
1. Thinking from the perspective of several years: the past 4-5 years have been a pharmaceutical bull market, and investment has paid more attention to “selecting the head company of the main track and enjoying valuation expansion”. The process of leaving the pharmaceutical bull market from the second half of 2021 to 2022 is to pay more attention to “individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion”. Policy is an interference item, not a decision item. In the long run, medicine has a definite comparative advantage after demand release and leaping aging. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: the upgrading of pharmaceutical science and technology, pharmaceutical consumption, pharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical mode.
2. Medium and short term: medicine has comparative advantages this year, but it is still bottom-up. The general principle of evading policies should not be forgotten. On the one hand, patiently wait for the opportunity of over falling discount of track stocks. On the one hand, it seeks offensive opportunities and focuses on four aspects: covid-19 (Medicine & vaccine), traditional Chinese medicine, first quarter report and cdmo after chip clearing.
3. Configuration idea:
Covid-19 line: (1) covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) . (2) Covid-19 vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) etc. (3) Traditional Chinese medicine anti epidemic: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) etc. (4) Covid-19 small molecule supply chain: Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , etc.
Traditional Chinese medicine line: (1) national reform of traditional Chinese medicine: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) . (2) Innovative traditional Chinese medicine: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , etc. (3) High growth of underestimated value of traditional Chinese medicine: Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) .
Other business lines: (1) vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; (2) The CrO ( Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) etc.); (4) CGT ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland, Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) ); (5) Rehabilitation: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300430) etc; (6) Rabies monoclonal antibody: Hunan Nucien Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688189) .
(7) Injection outlet ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ).
For long-term tracking, there is a long-term track to look at the promising ones: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) \ , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) , Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) , China biopharmaceutical, Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co.Ltd(688687) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or calculations.
