Market review: this week, the pharmaceutical and biological index rose 1.08%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.02 percentage points, ranking the third in the industry. Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 12.52%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.14 percentage points, ranking 16th in terms of rise and fall. The valuation level (pe-ttm) of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 28.69 times, with a premium rate of 96% (+ 3.7pp) relative to all a shares, 49% (+ 3.9pp) relative to all A-Shares excluding banks, and 145% (+ 4pp) relative to CSI 300. In terms of pharmaceutical sub industry, the six sub industry sectors rose this week, and vaccine was the largest sub industry, with an increase of about 16.9%. The pharmaceutical R & D industry and the medical package industry ranked second and third, with an increase of about 1.8% and 8.8% respectively. The sub industry with the largest increase since the beginning of the year is pharmaceutical circulation, up about 10.5%.
The triple bottom has been found, and the rebound of the pharmaceutical sector is sustainable. This week’s high-level speech built the market policy bottom. At the same time, the valuation and fund position of the pharmaceutical sector are at a low level. The triple bottom (policy bottom, valuation bottom and position bottom) has appeared. Many companies disclosed that the business data from January to February are generally good. The fundamentals of the pharmaceutical sector are strong, so we continue to see the rebound of the pharmaceutical sector. Configuration: on the one hand, it is recommended to add large market value leaders, such as Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , etc; On the other hand, we continue to recommend three directions: 1) traditional Chinese medicine sector: favorable marginal policy + price increase + reform of state-owned enterprises, and recommend Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , etc; 2) Independent and controllable supply chain: international conflicts further strengthen China’s willingness to realize domestic substitution in the supply chain, and recommend pharmaceutical machinery industry, such as Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , etc; 3) It is suggested to pay attention to the elastic stocks with PEG 1, such as Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) , Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) , etc. Finally, it is suggested to pay attention to thematic investment opportunities such as covid-19 drug / detection / vaccine industry chain.
In the era of normalization of medical insurance pressure and post epidemic, we should focus on looking for varieties of “through medical insurance” and “epidemic desensitization”. Medical insurance pressure will become the norm in the future. On the one hand, we believe that leading pharmaceutical enterprises such as Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) etc. are expected to cross the “medical insurance border” through “continuous innovation + internationalization”; On the other hand, medical insurance immunization is still a better choice. For the downstream TOC end, focus on the varieties that do not account for medical insurance, such as self funded biological drugs, traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, medical beauty upstream products, etc; The tob end at the upstream of the industrial chain is relatively immune to policies, such as the CXO section of the Chuang Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. The equipment section includes pharmaceutical machinery equipment, pharmacy automation equipment, consumables production equipment, etc., and the field of life science reagents and consumables. In the post epidemic era, we think we should focus on the field of “desensitization” of the epidemic, 1) vaccine varieties or vaccine oversold varieties that are not disturbed by covid-19; 2) When peg is less than 1, the undervalued value or low expected variety with upward long-term fundamental trend; 3) The varieties of medical services that have been damaged by the previous epidemic and the recovery of demand in the future.
The steady combination of this week’week’s steady combination: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ).
The elastic combination of this week is the elastic combination of the week: the elastic combination of the week of the week: the elastic combination of the week of the week: ‘ Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) ( Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ).
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure.
