View of semiconductor industry: with the slowdown of regional war and the sharp rebound and stability of China concept stocks, and the bearish rise of interest rates in the United States, the stocks of global semiconductor and technology sector rebounded significantly last week. In addition, the Fukushima earthquake in Japan last week caused the short-term shutdown and inspection of kioxia and Renesas, sumco and Xinyue, global wafer and Murata, MLCC, This will certainly make the chips and parts with unstable delivery date in the world worse, affect the supply of 3dnand flash memory, MCU, large silicon wafer and MLCC, and benefit the corresponding manufacturers. From the perspective of chip delivery date, the global automotive MCU and analog chip will last for 52 weeks, the server market FPGA will last for 50 weeks, the power management, network and power MOSFET chip will last for 40 weeks, the smartphone market 4gsoc35 weeks and a-gsensor34 weeks, so we are optimistic about the full production of OEM and the opportunity of price increase; In the second half of this year, the demand and contract price of the memory industry will rebound driven by the demand for high-speed computing and automotive chips. As an indispensable part of smart cars, the demand for analog chips has increased significantly. We believe that with the continuous strong demand and the shortage of short-term production capacity, analog chips are expected to become a high boom investment track in the next 2-3 years. The Japanese earthquake has exacerbated the global shortage of semiconductor silicon wafers, which is expected to further promote the localization of silicon wafers and photoresists.
View of the electronics industry: there is a strong demand for power semiconductors for vehicles and photovoltaic. The highest price of Infineon foundry increased by 50%, and the order receiving volume of wolfspeed increased by three times in the quarter. Strong demand for power semiconductors in automotive, industrial control, photovoltaic and other fields, coupled with the full capacity of the 6-inch chip foundry, Han Lei will comprehensively increase the quotation for the key customer Infineon by up to 50%. Infineon recently said that its current backlog of orders exceeds 31 billion euros (the company expects revenue of 13 billion euros in fiscal year 2022), and 80% of the demand of 31 billion euros is concentrated in one year, which far exceeds the company’s delivery capacity. Due to strong demand and insufficient production capacity, the delivery cycle of Infineon products has also been extended, and a price adjustment notice has been issued recently. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has greatly boosted the demand for power semiconductors. The average consumption of MOSFETs for each new vehicle of new energy vehicles is about 250, which is about 14 times that of traditional vehicles. Wolfspeed said it had received a total of $6 billion in new product orders in the first 10 quarters and $1.6 billion in orders in the latest quarter, far exceeding the previous estimate of $500 million per quarter. At present, the photovoltaic inverter and energy storage industry is growing rapidly, and the demand for photovoltaic IGBT is strong. Since 2021, Huawei and sunshine have strengthened the development of China’s supply chain. The industry growth + domestic substitution has actively benefited China’s leading power semiconductor companies. Many power semiconductor products of companies have been rapidly introduced into the photovoltaic field. At present, there are strong orders and are actively improving production capacity. We continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of electronic semiconductors for new energy and intelligent vehicles, focusing on the industrial chain of silicon carbide, IGBT, thin film capacitor and intelligent driving; Consumer electronics is mainly optimistic about AR / VR, folding screen mobile phone innovation and other fields; PCB is mainly optimistic about vehicle and server.
View of the communication industry: the policy and demand are improving, and the future market of the communication sector will focus on ICT infrastructure and industry digital segmentation leaders. At the policy level, after the closing of the two sessions, more detailed policies and landing measures are expected to be introduced in the field of digital economy. The judgment that ICT infrastructure construction is a new driving force to promote economic growth will be more significant after the first quarter. In terms of demand, from the recent financial reports disclosed by operators and major Internet of things companies, the digital demand of the industry is still strong. The recent repeated epidemic situation reflects the important role of ICT infrastructure in anti epidemic and production protection. Under the background of good policy and demand orientation, the overall performance of the communication sector this year is highly deterministic. After the recent correction of the sector with the general trend, some high-quality companies have obvious investment value. In the future, it is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities from two main lines: first, the head companies with good market pattern and scale effect in the supply chain of new ICT infrastructure such as 5g, cloud, optical network, IOT perception and satellite Internet; Second, in the scenario of the integration of communication and vertical industries, including the high growth segment leaders in the tracks of emerging industries such as aiot, digital energy and smart cars.
Recomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomcombinations: Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) 35.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles / mobile phones is lower than expected, the intelligent configuration is not as expected, and the valuation is high
