Epidemic main line, investment hot spot
Major events related to the recent outbreak: in March 15, 2022, the National Health Council announced the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). On March 17, 2022, MPP announced that it had signed contracts with 35 generic drug suppliers around the world, authorizing them to supply Pfizer’s anti covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drug paxlovid and its API for 95 low – and middle-income countries.
Our view:
The ninth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan reflects the trend of graded treatment of mild and severe diseases, and comprehensively considers the contradiction between the strong transmission ability of mutant strains and limited medical resources. As covid-19 specific drugs are listed one after another (specific drugs, traditional Chinese medicine and other comprehensive schemes), covid-19 antigen detection is released, and the proportion of enhanced needle vaccination is increasing, we expect that under the expectation of China’s anti epidemic normalization, it may have different effects on detection manufacturing drugs vaccines pharmacies and other sectors.
In terms of Pfizer covid-19 specific drug MPP authorization, qualified suppliers in China include Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , desenol, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) and so on. We think this is the expected fulfillment of the expansion of the scope of application of overseas heavy specific drugs. We recommend the Chinese supply chain of specific drugs and independent and controllable drug R & D companies. In terms of supporting arguments, we believe that obtaining MPP authorization is the verification that the applicant company has global compliance production capacity. From the perspective of performance fulfillment, we suggest paying attention to ① capacity reserve (whether the authorized company has sufficient capacity to explore the market of low-income countries without affecting the production scheduling of existing projects); ② Build an international sales team (companies with promotion teams in Asia, Africa and Latin America may benefit more).
For specific targets, we suggest to pay attention to: ① detection: Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Asahi biology, Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , etc; ② The raw material and cdmo: the raw material and the cdmo: the raw material and the cdmo: the following: followingthe following: the raw material and the raw material of the , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) etc; ③ Innovative medicines and traditional Chinese medicine: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ‘s innovative medicine and Chinese medicine: 68 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ;, Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) etc; ④ Vaccines: Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , etc; ⑤ Pharmacies: Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Shuyu Civilian Pharmacy Corp.Ltd(301017) , etc.
Performance this week: active transactions and bottom valuation
This week, the pharmaceutical sector rose 0.86%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.80 percentage points, ranking third in all industries. The proportion of transaction volume is at an all-time high. In terms of trading volume, the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 819.9 billion yuan, accounting for 14.8% of the total turnover of all a shares, 4.1% higher than that of the previous week, and 6.6pct higher than the central level since 2018. Historically, the proportion of turnover is at a high level, second only to 15.8% in the week of February 7, 2020. Valuations fell slightly and historical lows were consolidated. As of March 18, 2022, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 28.8 times, down 0.1 PCT month on month. The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 149%, up 4.5pct from the previous week, significantly lower than the central level in the past four years (182.3%).
According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, the eight sub sectors rose or fell by half this week, of which the biomedical sector rose by 4.7% and the traditional Chinese medicine decoction sector fell by 5.9%, which is a sector with obvious fluctuation.
According to the classification of key companies of Zheshang pharmaceutical, characteristic APIs performed the best (up 8.6%), followed by innovative drugs (up 2.8%), and medical services, medical devices and scientific research services adjusted the most, down 7.0%, 4.0% and 3.6% respectively. In the specialty API sector, Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) (+ 28.4%), Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) (+ 27.8%) and Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) (+ 20.5%) increased higher, mainly due to the market catalysis of covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain.
Pharmaceutical investment strategy in 2022: grasp manufacturing and welcome innovation
We suggest that investors should break the “core assets” and “sector concept” so that they can look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative pharmaceutical machinery will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of “grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation”.
Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo and other subdivided fields, recommended Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , etc.
2) upstream: the upstream: pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and other fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the upstream: the upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the upstream: the upstream: the upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, such as the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on, and the recommendations are recommended for senszonzonzonzonpine international, and the Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) etc.
3) innovation: for international equipment and pharmaceutical companies, it is recommended to pay attention to Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medicine, Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: Other: consumer attributes, medical services, innovative supporting industry companies, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies, recommending companies with consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industries, recommending companies with Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) etc.
Industry risk policy change tips; The price reduction of core products exceeded expectations; R & D progress is less than expected
