Market review. As of March 18, 2022, Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell by 2.90% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.96 percentage points, ranking 23rd among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell 12.34% this month, losing 5.44 percentage points to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 25th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals sector has fallen 8.31% year to date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.34 percentage points and ranking eighth among Shenwan 31 industries.
As of March 18, 2022, among the sub sectors of the non-ferrous metal industry this week, the energy metal sector fell 0.08%, the new metal material sector fell 1.28%, the small metal sector fell 2.33%, the industrial metal sector fell 4.12% and the precious metal sector fell 7.20%.
Zhou’s view on the nonferrous metals industry. Industrial metals. In the early morning of March 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 0.25% – 0.5%, which is in line with market expectations. The short-term bad mood has been exhausted, and the continuous high inflation supports the high prices of copper and aluminum. However, the recent repeated outbreaks in Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have affected the circulation and supplement of raw materials at the supply side of China’s copper and aluminum market, and the supply side of China’s copper and aluminum market is tight. In addition, on March 16, the five central ministries and commissions made a centralized voice on the real estate industry. The Ministry of Finance clearly mentioned that it did not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax this year. This news was conducive to stabilizing the expectations of the real estate market and benefiting the downstream consumption demand of copper. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) ( Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) ), Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ( Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ). noble metal. The situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to disturb the precious metal market in the short term. However, the negotiations between the two sides continue to reduce the demand for gold hedging to a certain extent. Previously, the negative sentiment such as the Fed’s interest rate hike put pressure on the upward trend of gold. On March 17, the Fed officially raised interest rates, the negative sentiment has been exhausted, and the gold price rebounded on Friday. The Federal Reserve of Russia and Ukraine will continue to pay attention to the change of the interest rate hike process in the future. Energy metals. As of March 17, 2022, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 504000 yuan / ton and that of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 485000 yuan / ton, both of which are slightly lower than that of last week. As the development cycle of lithium ore in the upstream is 2-3 years and the time is long, with the high growth of demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream, the future development sustainability of lithium industry is good. It is suggested to pay attention to Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ( Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ).
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; The monetary policy tightening of the Federal Reserve and the European central bank exceeded expectations; Prices of energy metals and rare earths fell; The downstream demand of nonferrous metals is lower than expected; The impact of the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the fluctuation of industrial metal prices.
