Review of the retail sector: in the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by – 1.77% and – 0.95% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index rose by – 2.63%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (49 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 10.68% and – 17.02% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 11.35%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and outperforming the Shenzhen composite index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 2.63%, ranking 24th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past three weeks, the real estate industry of CITIC and the non-financial industry rose by 1.02% and 1.02%, respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 11.35%, ranking 13th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, one of the 29 CITIC first-class industries has risen. The top three industries are coal, banking and construction, with an increase of 12.01%, – 1.28% and – 3.03% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were supermarkets, home appliance 3C chain and trade, with an increase of 2.81%, – 0.59% and – 0.92% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are professional markets, trade and supermarkets, with increases of – 4.74%, – 6.50% and – 7.61% respectively.
In the past week, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 22 companies rose and 71 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) , Renrenle Commercial Group Co.Ltd(002336) and 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) , with an increase of 17.60%, 13.14% and 12.33% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 31 companies have increased and 62 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Renrenle Commercial Group Co.Ltd(002336) and Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) , with an increase of 107.24%, 40.92% and 25.70% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
Affected by the epidemic, people in some areas are greatly affected when they go out. It is expected that there will be greater pressure on offline physical retail and catering in Shanghai and Shenzhen in March. At the same time, takeout business and e-commerce supermarkets may have impulse growth. On the whole, the growth rate of social consumption from January to February 2022 is good, but whether March can continue the above expected performance from January to February needs to be observed. We maintain the original view that the overall consumption recovery still needs policy boost, are optimistic about the short-term performance of gold and jewelry sales, and believe that the supermarket sector has relative gains in the short term. In view of the increased volatility of e-commerce trend, investors are advised to invest cautiously. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
